51% chance for Salisbury? No way. None. Easy to say now, but even if they had made it, that would have been ludicrous.

The failure in the system is that Pythagorean percentage rewards ridiculous margins of victory, so Salisbury beating Gallaudet 30-0 actually matters to the ranking, for example.

Pythag has its uses and is particularly useful in balanced schedules, but against widely disparate scheduling IMO has almost none. Not to mention that in Division III, teams that get overloaded on the schedule sometimes have to give up on a game and throw off pitching just to get through and lose 21-4 when maybe they could have only lost 10-4. In a real game with real teams, who cares? But the computer cares.

I do think Shenandoah, if this were lined out, would be a value pick for a variety of reasons.