With the 54 team field set, I consulted with my staff and here are what we have to say about the eight regionals that start tomorrow. I have been following the season, trying to keep an eye on all 369 teams. With the regular and tournament season behind us, it is playoff season and my attention is being drawn to those teams assembled in the regional playoff sites around the nation.
There are a lot of intriguing matchups and stories that one hopes develops over the next five days and we will be there to report it all. Good luck to all the teams still playing and I hope to see the eight best in nine days at the Championship round in Appleton Wisconsin.
Now here is my take of the playoffs that start tomorrow morning.
Mideast Regional
Top to bottom, this is the best balanced regional. It would not be a surprise if any team ended up the winner. Transylvania had a good start and although the faded in mid season, they have righted the ship at just the right time. Only Wooster has made the Championship round before and this regional has the best chance of sending a first-timer to Appleton.
Cinderella: The MIAA. Few people would have expected this regional to be dominated by the MIAA as they have been playoff fodder for many years. Not this year. Adrian signaled the change with big early wins against tough south competition and they are only a second place team. Calvin over took Adrian o the last day.
Most likely to disappoint: Rose-Hulman. A last minute Poll C bid got the Terre Haute regional a home team. The Engineers battled hard to get here and will have the crowd support and these folks will be disappointed if Rose-Hulman does not win the regional.
Champion: Heidelberg won big games all year and with their backs against the wall, denied OAC foe, Marietta a playoff bid. Although Wooster has been in the top 25 all year, they have been inconsistent at times and this difference is why we see the ‘Berg advancing.
New England Regional
This is one of the toughest regionals and no home team (unlike the other regionals). The three top seeded teams are all ranked in the first half of the D3baseball.com/NCWBA Top 25, and there is little relief at the bottom of the regional. The team that advances from this region will certainly know what it takes to win in the Championship round.
Cinderella: Western New England. Since starting 0-5 they are 31-6. They have a deep pitching staff, headed by two pitchers that can beat anyone in that region on a given day. Don’t count out their experience; this is their third straight appearance in Harwich.
Most likely to disappoint: A single loss this year will qualify as a disappointment but Trinity might get two this week. Eight-seeded Castleton has played against twice the number of NCAA playoff team (4) as Trinity (2) and coupled with the fact that since coming back from their spring trip, has not played games on three straight days, the Bantams’ might find getting out of the regional not as easy as getting here.
Champion: Keene State is the most prepared team for this tournament. They played a tough schedule in AZ, they played in the toughest conference, they have played a lot of games bunched together, they can win a 1-0 game but can MASH, they played in the conference tournament that most closely resembles the regional (quality of teams and format), and they showed they can come back from a loss and win a tournament. Another key is their line up, their 3-4-5 hitters combined for the following numbers (.328 BA, .599 slg%, 16 2B, 14 3B, 26 HR)…Oh wait, I got that wrong, that isn’t their 3-4-5 hitters that is their 7-8-9 hitters: Ford, Darak, & Jones. There are no breaks in the Owl’s lineup
South Regional
Danville is not far from Lynchburg and there should be plenty of support for the Hornets. With two more schools from the Commonwealth of Virginia, Randolph-Macon and Christopher Newport expect big crowds this weekend. This regional also features the toughest 1-2 seeds as both Johns Hopkins and Salisbury are ranked in the top five.
Cinderella: Piedmont has a good even season. Here at D3baseball.com, we thought this was the year a GSAC team would get a playoff bid, just picked the wrong team. The Lions could challenge the two heavy favorites if they can start the regional with a tough Lynchburg team.
Most likely to disappoint: Christopher Newport. Playing near home, the Christopher Newport will have a tough road starting with a first round game with Johns Hopkins. Moreland and Bailey will need a big series to get the Captains out of this round.
Champion: Salisbury was also our pick last year but this year is special. They had that monster win streak playing against the best in the South and are ready to make another trip to Appleton. Expect Johns Hopkins to challenge them for a ticket north.
New York Regional
The New York region has always been dominated by the same few teams. Twenty years ago it was Ithaca and now the dominant team is the Cortland State Red Dragons. Joining the three perennial New York teams (Cortland State, Ithaca, and RPI) are a host of new names, including two teams shipped in from the Mideast. Traditional powers Eastern Connecticut and Montclair State make this regional more competitive than it has been in past seasons.
Cinderella: Ohio Wesleyan made it here with a big playoff series win over Wooster and followed it up with a playoff clinching performance against Denison. They have a core group that could challenge a regional filled with teams bringing in lots of playoff experience.
Most likely to disappoint: Ithaca has not been to the championship round since 1994 and once again this does not appear to be their season. They started poorly at the beginning of the season and then breezed through the Empire 8. The Bombers are stumbling at the end of the season and even we don’t know which team will be at the regional.
Champion: Cortland State should start making its hotel reservations at the Paper Valley Hotel in Appleton.
Mid-Atlantic Regional
How often has a NJAC team claimed this regional? The regional has the 1-2-3 NJAC finishers in the same position at this regional hosted by Kean. Last year Gwynedd-Mercy made a run that was ended by Johns Hopkins who fell to the eventual National Champions. Someone will step up to challenge the best of the NJAC but here at D3baseball.com we see a NJAC team win out in the end.
Cinderella: Penn State-Behrend was 17-1 in the AMCC conference. They won their first AMCC title since 2003. The Lions have both the conference player of the year in third baseman Dustin Dubensky and pitcher of the year David Koerbel.
Most likely to disappoint: With Johns Hopkins moved to the South Region, it would be a major disappointment for an NJAC team not to advance.
Champion: Defending NCAA Champion Kean has swept both Rowan and New Jersey in the regular season and is 2-0 against both teams. The Cougars can pickup two wins before the likelihood of playing an NJAC team in game eight on Friday. Kean returns to Appleton to defend the national championship they earned last year.
Central Regional
Two teams come to this regional from another regional. UW-Stevens Point and Linfield hope to crash the central party. Will the long layoff hurt Linfield’s chances? Will a tough WIAC tournament win be key for the Pointers? Not if any one of four central region teams want to advance.
Cinderella: The Knights played a tough non-conference schedule and are tournament tested as they return to the NCAA Tournament. An experienced team, the Knights could pose a threat to the top two seeds.
Most likely to disappoint: Augustana. The Vikings were the third team in the CCIW all season long. While they are playing on their home field, the Vikings have struggled to find consistency among their pitching staff
Champion: Illinois Wesleyan. It took the Titans a while to gel, but they backed up the preseason hype with a strong finish to win the CCIW regular season and Tournament crowns, knocking off Carthage in the process. UW-Stevens Point was a very similar team that also put on a strong run at the end of the season.
Midwest Regional
Knox is the only sub .500 team in a regional. A remarkable four-way tine in the MWC southern division set up a the Prairie Fire in their first playoff appearance. It will be a miracle if they pull off another upset but here we see the regional belonging to the traditional powers.
Cinderella: St. Scholastica has most of the ingredients: pro-prospect pitcher (Kummet), great left-handed starter (Burg), decent pitching depth (Gerten, Lewis, Lanari), can hit with anyone, veteran team, proven it can beat the region’s best (St. Thomas, Oshkosh). The Saints are expected to make a run for their first championship round appearance.
Most likely to disappoint: UW-Whitewater. Their offense struggled a bit at the WIAC tourney and with only have two reliable SPs (Dominick and Dott), the Warhawks will need to hit to make a run at the regional title.
Champion: St. Thomas’ only appearances in the championship round is during a remarkable three years as the finished 2-2-1 in the nation. They have the team moving in the right direction and could they be starting another string of championship appearances? Fortunately for the Tommies, Carthage played their best baseball at the start of the season and have faltered as of late, otherwise it would be a toss-up picking a regional winner between St. Thomas and Carthage.
West Regional
Everyone expected more than two teams from Texas in the tournament so with the likes of Texas-Tyler, University of the Ozarks, and Concordia-Texas sitting out we get to see more west coast teams try for the regional win.
Cinderella: Cal State East Bay quietly worked itself into a Pool B slot with quality wins over Washington (Mo) on the last weekend to knock out Emory. The Pioneers have faced most of the competition in the regional and this experience will help them advance through the regional.
Most likely to disappoint: McMurry has overcome all the adversity that you could imagine: injuries, mid-season slump, and injuries that boggle the mind. Derek David has carried this team on his shoulders all season long and he will be looked to do it one more time.
Champion: Chapman has been strong all season long against the top teams and here at D3baseball.com we see the Panther’s moving on to another appearance in the Championship round.
