D3baseball looks at the playoffs
May
2008
With the 54 team field set, I consulted with my staff and here are what we have to say about the eight regionals that start tomorrow. I have been following the season, trying to keep an eye on all 369 teams. With the regular and tournament season behind us, it is playoff season and my attention is being drawn to those teams assembled in the regional playoff sites around the nation.
There are a lot of intriguing matchups and stories that one hopes develops over the next five days and we will be there to report it all. Good luck to all the teams still playing and I hope to see the eight best in nine days at the Championship round in Appleton Wisconsin.
Now here is my take of the playoffs that start tomorrow morning.
Mideast Regional
Top to bottom, this is the best balanced regional. It would not be a surprise if any team ended up the winner. Transylvania had a good start and although the faded in mid season, they have righted the ship at just the right time. Only Wooster has made the Championship round before and this regional has the best chance of sending a first-timer to Appleton.
Cinderella: The MIAA. Few people would have expected this regional to be dominated by the MIAA as they have been playoff fodder for many years. Not this year. Adrian signaled the change with big early wins against tough south competition and they are only a second place team. Calvin over took Adrian o the last day.
Most likely to disappoint: Rose-Hulman. A last minute Poll C bid got the Terre Haute regional a home team. The Engineers battled hard to get here and will have the crowd support and these folks will be disappointed if Rose-Hulman does not win the regional.
Champion: Heidelberg won big games all year and with their backs against the wall, denied OAC foe, Marietta a playoff bid. Although Wooster has been in the top 25 all year, they have been inconsistent at times and this difference is why we see the ‘Berg advancing.
New England Regional
This is one of the toughest regionals and no home team (unlike the other regionals). The three top seeded teams are all ranked in the first half of the D3baseball.com/NCWBA Top 25, and there is little relief at the bottom of the regional. The team that advances from this region will certainly know what it takes to win in the Championship round.
Cinderella: Western New England. Since starting 0-5 they are 31-6. They have a deep pitching staff, headed by two pitchers that can beat anyone in that region on a given day. Don’t count out their experience; this is their third straight appearance in Harwich.
Most likely to disappoint: A single loss this year will qualify as a disappointment but Trinity might get two this week. Eight-seeded Castleton has played against twice the number of NCAA playoff team (4) as Trinity (2) and coupled with the fact that since coming back from their spring trip, has not played games on three straight days, the Bantams’ might find getting out of the regional not as easy as getting here.
Champion: Keene State is the most prepared team for this tournament. They played a tough schedule in AZ, they played in the toughest conference, they have played a lot of games bunched together, they can win a 1-0 game but can MASH, they played in the conference tournament that most closely resembles the regional (quality of teams and format), and they showed they can come back from a loss and win a tournament. Another key is their line up, their 3-4-5 hitters combined for the following numbers (.328 BA, .599 slg%, 16 2B, 14 3B, 26 HR)…Oh wait, I got that wrong, that isn’t their 3-4-5 hitters that is their 7-8-9 hitters: Ford, Darak, & Jones. There are no breaks in the Owl’s lineup
South Regional
Danville is not far from Lynchburg and there should be plenty of support for the Hornets. With two more schools from the Commonwealth of Virginia, Randolph-Macon and Christopher Newport expect big crowds this weekend. This regional also features the toughest 1-2 seeds as both Johns Hopkins and Salisbury are ranked in the top five.
Cinderella: Piedmont has a good even season. Here at D3baseball.com, we thought this was the year a GSAC team would get a playoff bid, just picked the wrong team. The Lions could challenge the two heavy favorites if they can start the regional with a tough Lynchburg team.
Most likely to disappoint: Christopher Newport. Playing near home, the Christopher Newport will have a tough road starting with a first round game with Johns Hopkins. Moreland and Bailey will need a big series to get the Captains out of this round.
Champion: Salisbury was also our pick last year but this year is special. They had that monster win streak playing against the best in the South and are ready to make another trip to Appleton. Expect Johns Hopkins to challenge them for a ticket north.
New York Regional
The New York region has always been dominated by the same few teams. Twenty years ago it was Ithaca and now the dominant team is the Cortland State Red Dragons. Joining the three perennial New York teams (Cortland State, Ithaca, and RPI) are a host of new names, including two teams shipped in from the Mideast. Traditional powers Eastern Connecticut and Montclair State make this regional more competitive than it has been in past seasons.
Cinderella: Ohio Wesleyan made it here with a big playoff series win over Wooster and followed it up with a playoff clinching performance against Denison. They have a core group that could challenge a regional filled with teams bringing in lots of playoff experience.
Most likely to disappoint: Ithaca has not been to the championship round since 1994 and once again this does not appear to be their season. They started poorly at the beginning of the season and then breezed through the Empire 8. The Bombers are stumbling at the end of the season and even we don’t know which team will be at the regional.
Champion: Cortland State should start making its hotel reservations at the Paper Valley Hotel in Appleton.
Mid-Atlantic Regional
How often has a NJAC team claimed this regional? The regional has the 1-2-3 NJAC finishers in the same position at this regional hosted by Kean. Last year Gwynedd-Mercy made a run that was ended by Johns Hopkins who fell to the eventual National Champions. Someone will step up to challenge the best of the NJAC but here at D3baseball.com we see a NJAC team win out in the end.
Cinderella: Penn State-Behrend was 17-1 in the AMCC conference. They won their first AMCC title since 2003. The Lions have both the conference player of the year in third baseman Dustin Dubensky and pitcher of the year David Koerbel.
Most likely to disappoint: With Johns Hopkins moved to the South Region, it would be a major disappointment for an NJAC team not to advance.
Champion: Defending NCAA Champion Kean has swept both Rowan and New Jersey in the regular season and is 2-0 against both teams. The Cougars can pickup two wins before the likelihood of playing an NJAC team in game eight on Friday. Kean returns to Appleton to defend the national championship they earned last year.
Central Regional
Two teams come to this regional from another regional. UW-Stevens Point and Linfield hope to crash the central party. Will the long layoff hurt Linfield’s chances? Will a tough WIAC tournament win be key for the Pointers? Not if any one of four central region teams want to advance.
Cinderella: The Knights played a tough non-conference schedule and are tournament tested as they return to the NCAA Tournament. An experienced team, the Knights could pose a threat to the top two seeds.
Most likely to disappoint: Augustana. The Vikings were the third team in the CCIW all season long. While they are playing on their home field, the Vikings have struggled to find consistency among their pitching staff
Champion: Illinois Wesleyan. It took the Titans a while to gel, but they backed up the preseason hype with a strong finish to win the CCIW regular season and Tournament crowns, knocking off Carthage in the process. UW-Stevens Point was a very similar team that also put on a strong run at the end of the season.
Midwest Regional
Knox is the only sub .500 team in a regional. A remarkable four-way tine in the MWC southern division set up a the Prairie Fire in their first playoff appearance. It will be a miracle if they pull off another upset but here we see the regional belonging to the traditional powers.
Cinderella: St. Scholastica has most of the ingredients: pro-prospect pitcher (Kummet), great left-handed starter (Burg), decent pitching depth (Gerten, Lewis, Lanari), can hit with anyone, veteran team, proven it can beat the region’s best (St. Thomas, Oshkosh). The Saints are expected to make a run for their first championship round appearance.
Most likely to disappoint: UW-Whitewater. Their offense struggled a bit at the WIAC tourney and with only have two reliable SPs (Dominick and Dott), the Warhawks will need to hit to make a run at the regional title.
Champion: St. Thomas’ only appearances in the championship round is during a remarkable three years as the finished 2-2-1 in the nation. They have the team moving in the right direction and could they be starting another string of championship appearances? Fortunately for the Tommies, Carthage played their best baseball at the start of the season and have faltered as of late, otherwise it would be a toss-up picking a regional winner between St. Thomas and Carthage.
West Regional
Everyone expected more than two teams from Texas in the tournament so with the likes of Texas-Tyler, University of the Ozarks, and Concordia-Texas sitting out we get to see more west coast teams try for the regional win.
Cinderella: Cal State East Bay quietly worked itself into a Pool B slot with quality wins over Washington (Mo) on the last weekend to knock out Emory. The Pioneers have faced most of the competition in the regional and this experience will help them advance through the regional.
Most likely to disappoint: McMurry has overcome all the adversity that you could imagine: injuries, mid-season slump, and injuries that boggle the mind. Derek David has carried this team on his shoulders all season long and he will be looked to do it one more time.
Champion: Chapman has been strong all season long against the top teams and here at D3baseball.com we see the Panther’s moving on to another appearance in the Championship round.
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May 13th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Really went out on a limb there, didnt’ ya? 7 of 8 top seeds?
Like your take on NE, though I think Worcester State could cause Wheaton some problems.
I have no idea what to do with Day 1 in the south. I think the top pitchers could be on the 5 and 6 seeds, Piedmont has a good ace and strong reliever as well. I see a high chaos potential here.
Mideast — (holding nose) I think Wooster got a nice draw here. IMO they should save Samson for the potential Heidelberg matchup because it’s hard to walk Heidelberg even when you’re trying (other than Wentworth) and Samson pitches off the plate a little more. Adrian’s ace doesnt’ walk many, doesn’t strike out many, which I think means Wooster has a day. Rose-Hulman has two dependable arms at the top of their rotation.
Mid-Atl — Rowan and PSU-Behrend are IMO wildcards. How will Rowan use Kulik? Will PSU-Behrend start Cain again as they did in the conference tournament, and will he dominate like he has out of the pen? Will Kean’s offense make sure none of it matters? You can’t strike these guys out.
NY — Is anyone not looking at Ohio Wesleyan to crash the party? If Rensselaer saves Zongol for game 2, they could well put a kink in OWU’s cinderella plans. Cortland State has to be hating their draw; these aren’t MSU or ECSU’s best teams, but to face a program like one of those 2 on day 2 isn’t exactly what you hope for as a top seed.
Central — Why is this always the weakest region even in the de-regionalization? IMO the most balanced team is Linfield. There’s no area of the game where they are seriously deficient. 5 teams could easily win this thing.
West — As usual, Chapman is not deep on pitching, but very very talented at the top of the rotation. If someone can knock them into the loser’s bracket, they’re in trouble. Then, it’s anyone’s region.
Midwest — The fans at Wisconsin Rapids are the beneficiaries of the ill-conceived switch of UWSP for Carthage, putting Carthage down a seed where UWSP would probably have been a 5 here. Carthage and UWO both have solid aces that should have a great game. Why the heck is this taking place at a freaking high school field? That better be the best high school field in the country.
May 13th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Spence,
I don’t think fans at Wisconsin Rapids will be benefiting from anything — the regional is at Oshkosh this year.
May 13th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
Are the tournament rosters (24-man) posted anywhere that you know of?
May 13th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
I doubt it’s the best in the country, but yes, EJ Schenider Memorial Field IS a great surface that I assume gets pampered more than most HS ballparks. It’s amazing how dedicated the locals are to maintaining that yard. And to great effect, which is something you’d know if you ever played at EJ.
EJ Schneider just happens to be home to a HS team during the spring, but it’s also the home of the Wisconsin HS state all-star games, a semipro team, etc.
EJ has also been the field for past Oshkosh regionals. Then again D3baseball.com wasn’t around back then for people to write things about a freaking high school field he or she has never seen nor played on. If anyone has something bad to say about anything inside the fences at EJ, I’d be surprised. Outside the fences is another story. In fact, if anyone besides me has ever played on it, what was your opinion?
If this comes off as defensive, it’s because I have played on many fields across the country, including the home of the D-III NCAA championships, and EJ Schneider was my favorite infield. Take that for what it’s worth to you, but I hope it means more than an implied, ignorant dig on a great playing surface.
p.s. Welcome back.
May 13th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Spence,
I hope no ones follow you to a regional at Wisconsin Rapids. They will be sitting in an empty stadium. The regional is in Oshkosh.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
OshDude- I played at EJ Schneider many time while growing up in the Fox Valley playing high school, legion and semi-pro baseball there for about 15 years. It is a great surface and not your typical high school field. I am under the impression that it is a city-owned field that just happens to lie on a high school campus.
Ironically, that last time Carthage was in the Midwest Region in 1992, it was held at EJ Schneider field and it resulted in UWO sweeping Carthage on the final day to send the Titans back to Battle Creek. I was watching that game as a high school senior and committed to play for Carthage that afternoon. win or lose, I was very impressed with their program. Carthage made its first Championship round appearance the following year (1993) in Battle Creek and was defeated by UWO at the Finals in ‘93, ‘94 and ‘95 (Tim Jorgensen and Jarrod Washburn). I have many memories of that field.
May 13th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
I just find it interesting that they seem to have tried to phase out playing on home fields, but have no problem playing on a high school field in the same town as a home team. Not to mention that people used to raise heck about Marietta having the series at home, and then Oshkosh doesn’t have more than a 20 mile trip as long as they remain in the tournament. Just seems like it’s out of step with the way D-III has been trending. I mean if high school fields are an option, was there really no where else the West Regional could have been other than Hart Park for the last like decade before this year?
I guess I’d rather see the tournament contested on a D-III program’s home field or a minor league park over a high school field of any kind if at all possible. It’s pretty hard to make a case that D-III is deserving of any additional attention or coverage when we’re playing NCAA events at high school venues.
As for making a mistake Just Bill, cut me some slack. I worked 17 hours on Sunday and until about 4 this afternoon wasn’t aware it was Tuesday and not Wednesday because Sunday seemed like 2 days to me.
May 14th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
I just have to say that the amount of live stats feeds available this year is just great. Someone needs to get the Central Region with the program! NE’s isn’t working but they have the video feed so I think they can be excused.
Great stuff…I’ve got six tabs open with live stat feeds right now.
May 14th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
CSS and UWW are now on the radio! For anyone who has nothing better to do at work or has the day off enjoy Saints radio broadcast. click listen live at the top of the website
http://www.fan560.com/main.php
May 14th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Spence — it’s great how technology has changed how people can follow Division III athletics across the board.
May 14th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
The series of tubes apparently hasn’t made it to the Quad Cities. But this is the best coverage as far as the live updates goes that I can remember. I don’t know if this was a coordinated effort or just a result of planets aligning, but I’m glad for it.
Christopher Newport, Adrian and Webster pull the seed upsets over perennially overseeded Johns Hopkins, Wooster and Illinois Wesleyan. I thought this was a good matchup for Wooster; Adrian’s pitcher had 9 walks and 19 Ks on the year. Figured they could get it done when know they’re going to be able to go to the plate swinging.
Moreland and CNU score a point for the “trust your ace” school of thought, much like Southern Maine didn’t trust their guy and fell in 12 after allowing 3 in the 9th.
I of course know nothing about the IWU game other than IWU apparently left the bats on the bus. Did they throw either of their top 2?
May 14th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Mark it down.. the Golden Bears of Western New England will hand Trinity their first loss tomorrow. Both teams have their aces lined up for this game but expect Matt LaBranche’s WNEC squad to outlast the undefeated Bantams in a well played game. The experienced Golden Bears are riding high after an extra inning win over #4 Southern Maine. I fear that the Bantams may have been lulled to sleep by the sloppy game they were part of this afternoon with the #8 seeded Castleton State. Tomorrow promises to be a terrific pitching matchup between LHP Chris Anderson of WNEC and righty Tim Kiely of Trinity.
May 14th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
IWU threw their ace….he lasted 4 innings. The Webster starter shut down the IWU bats and Webster turned a triple play to end the game. Below is the link to the boxscore.
http://websterathletics.com/custompages/Baseball/08Stats/08NCAA01.HTM
May 14th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Found the box on Webster’s site. Nope, IWU threw Kulavic. He made it 4 innings.
May 14th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
5-0 Rowan over Keystone after 1. Kulik struck out the side in the first.
If this gets much more out of hand, do you pull Kulik if you’re Rowan? Kean saved Bartlinski, TCNJ saved Buskett and Oliver.
May 14th, 2008 at 9:40 pm
6-0, Kulik has 6 Ks through 2.
I’d have to think really hard about pulling him if they score any more; he’s faced 8 batters so far, so I’d have to imagine his pitch count is around 30-35.
May 14th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
Nice ending for RPI with a walkoff single in the bottom of the ninth … just not a good sign that they struggled with Farmingdale.
May 14th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
Nice call on CNU being a disappointment: CNU 8, JHU 5, in ten innings. Contributions from throughout the lineup. No disappointment yet. Tough Lynchburg team tomorrow night. Hope they got their hits out of their system in beating Piedmont.
May 14th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
RPI got through (barely) without using Zongol though and I doubt either Ithaca or OWU will be able to get away with not using their #1, unless of course neither one throws lol.
10-0 Rowan in the 4th. Kulik at about 45 pitches through 4. I think i would have pulled him after 1. If they pulled him here they could probably still bring him back on Friday though. I would have been tempted to sit him down after 1 and throw him tomorrow against TCNJ (either Oliver or Buskett).
May 15th, 2008 at 12:34 am
Augustana 6, Wartburg 5 — OWU/Ithaca is the last game in progress.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:26 am
Ithaca scored twice in the bottom of the ninth and had the bases loaded with nobody out but a tapper in front of (off the?) plate turned into a double play and a ball hit off OWU’s pitcher to the second baseman for the third out. Final OWU 5, Ithaca 3.
May 15th, 2008 at 10:35 am
The word out of Rock Island is that their new cable internet didn’t get installed as expected. They needed a good plan B, like a mobile broadand card.
Spence, no big deal. Just making sure people have the right info.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Bill, actually I was paid by the chamber of commerce in Wisconsin Rapids to try to direct people there rather than Oshkosh
May 17th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
Spence, relative to the “perennially overseeded Johns Hopkins,” I just got back from Danville. Surely you’re not talking about the last two years. In 2007 as a three seed in the Mid-Atlantic, Hopkins lost twice to Kean (once by two runs, once by one run in extra innings) the eventual national champion. This year as a two seed, they won the regional. How far back do I have to go to find them perennially overseeded?
May 18th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
In what was probably the craziest game of the whole tournament (hopefully nothing tops it in the World Series), not just for it going to the 13th inning and ending in a walk-off grandslam, but also all the other things that don’t necessarily get reported….
I know somewhere it said the Rose-Hulman was most likely to disappoint, but I know despite going 1-2, every fan is proud of the team because every game was fought till the end.
Here is a recap on what actually happened in the 13th inning, ejections and all:
http://www.tribstar.com/sports/local_story_137234648.html
http://www.tribstar.com/sports/local_story_137233906.html?keyword=topstory
http://www.tribstar.com/sports_columns/local_story_138233655.html
All three very interesting reads…..
May 18th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
The South regional was weird this year in that no one had any pitching depth and the top seed had a very soft schedule. I said there was a high potential for weirdness and chaos and I was right (and not just because of the Lynchburg/CNU rain delay display); CNU pulled the first day upset and Piedmont made for the odd 5 teams after 2 days situation which benefitted Hopkins greatly. Lynchburg hammered the first two teams they played, then forgot how to hit against the back end of their opponents’ pitching staffs. Unusual.
Hopkins was fortunate to be shipped into a much weaker regional than their natural region (same goes for Linfield, every school should hope for such a favorable regional draw).
I don’t understand why Piedmont never started Dimitroff. He was a starter last year and a pretty good one. I thought he could have given Piedmont a real chance in the Friday game. Instead you put him in with the score 12-6 or whatever in the 8th? Sorry, I can’t predict coaching decisions like that, and I maintain my opinion that having a designated closer in D-III is stupid unless the kid is not capable of starting. Yacko at Chapman is a rare exception because he plays a high-priority defensive position.
Piedmont winning day 2 meant Hopkins never had to play 2 games in a day until the final day, and then when that came up they played the team that had the night game every day up until then.
Do you think that Hopkins would have been up to put 13s, 9s, 7s, consistently in a regional consisting of 3 NJAC teams?
Be happy for the breaks you were given. In NY, NJ or MA, the road would have been much more difficult.
May 18th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Rain in New Jersey again?
Would be a break for Rowan if they got washed out to tomorrow…would give Cichy another day of rest.
May 27th, 2008 at 12:12 am
Can’t believe Emory was left out this year after being the defending runner up! Guess the committee knows of the academic prowess and chooses to let teams in who haven’t tasted the postseason squeak in there. South top seed had an easy schedule because the best four teams were’nt involved. No worries, it has happened before and it will happen again. The South (the coaches who decide haven’t left their home-state for anything except away games and funerals)loves to reward the squads that have a good record. play nobody and will work for us someday…I’ll have non-fat milk in my caramel macciato, if you’re able to make it as far as Starbucks. If places like Rocky Mount, Fayetteville and Bumfart are still on the map. Tell Coach Howard at LaGrange that Zubaz are popular again and his tard sister is on the cutting edge of fashion. For those of you who didn’t go to Emory (or another UAA DIII school)…prowess means good. Go Eagles! Be nice to us and we might hire you some day!