D3baseball.com Daily Dose

62 Responses to “D3baseball.com looks at the bids”

1. TheGNAC Says:
   May 11th, 2008 at 6:32 pm

   Hey Jim, good work, we all know how jumbled these rankings are and to make sense of this takes a lot of effort. I agree with most of your selections, although I’m not sure Montclair State is guaranteed a bid.

   FYI, Suffolk is 6-6 vs. in-region ranked teams, as they’re 1-0 against Montclair State.

2. Ralph Turner Says:
   May 11th, 2008 at 6:40 pm

   Proofreading…
   Concordia-TX is 27-13 in region, but that is a percentage of .675, not .700. That makes the point even better. (28-12 is .700.)

   Thanks for picking up the Montclair State game for Suffolk.

3. bbfan Says:
   May 11th, 2008 at 6:53 pm

   If Methodist goes over NC Wesleyan it is a real disappointment. Obviously, NC Wesleyan is better team beating them 2 out of 3 and a pretty good whipping at that. Answer me a question Dixon, isn’t the Coach at Methodist on the National selection committee for regional bids (NCAA). Sounds like a lot of “networking” is being done. Disappointing!!!

4. AG Says:
   May 11th, 2008 at 7:02 pm

   Nice job with the breakdown. It will be very interesting in seeing how the NCAA seeds the team, or if they primarily go with the trends of the latest published rankings.

5. BaseballFan Says:
   May 11th, 2008 at 7:12 pm

   So you guys have Texas Tyler not making it, very interesting… Did you guys put together a list of the regional seeds?

6. Ralph Turner Says:
   May 11th, 2008 at 7:16 pm

   bbfan, when a coach’s team is under consideration, that coach is obligated to recuse him/herself from the deliberations.

   I understand that they are required to leave the roomor to sign off of the conference call during that time.

   I know Lee Driggers, who is the head of the committee this year. The NCAA accepts nominations to these positions on the committees. These men and women are professionals who work to serve their sport, their institutions, the conferences whom they represent and the NCAA to the best of their ability. Sitting in the committee room, the goal becomes to get it right, to post something about which that everyone can be proud. When we have heard the committee chairs discuss the tourneys in D-III for men’s and women’s basketball on Hoopsville, I have been impressed with the care that has gone into the effort.

   As we look at the winning percentages of the contenders that are on the table, Methodist’s in-region winning percentage is only .643 (22-12-1). NCWC’s only .653 (23-12-1). If we go the old Game Behind analysis for Methodist, they are 2.5 games behind Suffolk and NCWC is about 2.0 games behind. If Methodist had won two more in-region games, then the in-region record would have been 24-10-1, .700. Two more wins for either NCWC or Methodist would probably mean a Pool A bid, too.

   I think that the USASouth is a good conference, but I also think it will be better if they acquire all four of the GSAC schools.

7. OhioBaseball Says:
   May 11th, 2008 at 7:21 pm

   Ralph-

   Based on your Pool C predictions, you guys are going on the assumption that New York will be an 8 team regional?

   That is the only way I see Rochester, Montclair and Suffolk making it in Pool C.

8. Ralph Turner Says:
   May 11th, 2008 at 7:43 pm

   (Ohio, Please contact me via email on my profile.)

   As to where the NCAA assigns the 6 or 8 team brackets, I have no idea. I think that New England, Mid-Atlantic and New York can serve as 8-team brackets.

   Or, Midwest! Fly in George Fox, if there are 6 West Region teams (Chapman, ULV, Linfield, McMurry, Trinity Concordia-TX). Midwest–UWW, UWSP, UWO, Knox, Tommies, Wartburg, Carthage and GFU!

   I don’t want to sound like a homer and have the West get 8-teams (A: LaVerne, Linfield, McMurry, Trinity, B: Chapman, CSU-East Bay, C: Linfield Concordia-Austin or UT-Tyler). I don’t know whether the secret is trying to beat Chapman in 6-team regional or an 8-team regional!

9. BaseballFan Says:
   May 11th, 2008 at 7:55 pm

   Ralph you forgot CSS in that list of midwest teams for an 8 team regional–thats a lot of teams you have switching regionals that would make it interesting now wouldnt it.

   I have the Midwest as:
   1. UWW
   2. Thomas
   3. Point
   4. CSS
   5. Oshkosh
   6. Knox
   I thought Point winning the WIAC shook up the midwest rankings so I believe the top 4 could be seeded differently

10. Pat Coleman Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 7:58 pm

    bbfan:

    “If Methodist goes over NC Wesleyan it is a real disappointment. Obviously, NC Wesleyan is better team beating them 2 out of 3 and a pretty good whipping at that.”

    Actually, that’s not the only thing that goes into tournament selection. Here’s another important measure:

    Opponents’ Winning Percentage
    Methodist: .569
    N.C. Wesleyan: .534
    Methodist has the clear advantage here.

    Regional record against in-region common opponents
    Methodist: 19-8 .704
    N.C. Wesleyan: 17-9-1 .648
    Lot of common opponents, as you might expect.

11. Ralph Turner Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 8:24 pm

    BaseballFan, thanks!

    Thanks for the OWP on Methodist and NCWC, Pat!

12. Pat Coleman Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 8:48 pm

    No problem. Half-hour of my life I’ll never get back.

13. dixon Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 10:14 pm

    OhioBaseball Says:
    Based on your Pool C predictions, you guys are going on the assumption that New York will be an 8 team regional?

    I like New York as a eight team regional. I kinda think a regional (not seeded) set up could look like this:

    New England:
    CCC: Western New England
    GNAC: St Joseph (Maine)
    LEC: Keene State
    MASCAC: Worcester State
    NESCAC: Trinity
    NEWMAC: Wheaton (Mass.)
    NoAC: Castelton
    C1: Eastern Connecticut State

    New York:
    LL: RPI
    SKY: Farmingdale State
    SUNYAC: Cortland State
    B3: Ithaca
    C2: Rochester
    C11: New Jersey
    C13: Montclair State
    C14: Suffolk

    Mid-Atlantic:
    AMCC: PS-Brehend
    CC: Johns Hopkins
    MAC: Messiah
    MAF: DeSales
    NEAC: Keystone
    NJAC: Kean
    PnAC: Gwynedd-Mercy
    C3: Rowan

    South:
    ODAC: Randolph-Macon
    USA sOUTH: Christopher Newport
    B1: Salisbury
    B5: Piedmont
    B6: Emory
    C4: Lynchburg

    Mideast:
    HCAC: Transylvania
    MIAA: Calvin
    NCAC: Ohio Wesleyan
    OAC: Heidelberg
    PrAC: Grove City
    C7: Wooster

    Central:
    CCIW: Illinois Wesleyan
    IIAC: Wartburg
    SLIAC: Webster
    C6: Carthage
    C9: Augustana
    C10: Adrian

    Midwest:
    MWC: Knox
    MIAC: St Thomas
    WIAC: UW-Stevens Point
    B4: St. Scholastica
    C7: UW-Whitewater
    C12: Uw-Oshkosh

    West:
    ASC: McMurry
    NWC: Linfield
    SCIAC: La Verne
    SCAC: Trinity (Texas)
    B2: Chapman
    C8: George Fox

14. Terry Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 10:39 pm

    Based on the pool C predictions, whats up with UT Tyler?? Tyler has some of the best stats out there…Look at their Pitching ERA’s, they are solid, good team, I think they would go far

15. paulheering Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:04 pm

    Judging by recent history (NCAA sending lower seeded New England AQ’s to NY region–Westfield in 2007, Endicott in 2006, & RIC in 2005) and geography (Castleton State is actually closer to Auburn, NY than Harwich, MA) I think Castleton getting sent to New York is a possibility.

16. oshdude Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:04 pm

    I agree on the B’s and 12 of the C’s. I have CTX and Tyler instead Suffolk and Rochester, with George Fox filling out a region.
    Southern Maine and Rochester are my first two out.

17. rjburke Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:11 pm

    Jim- Four days ago, I would have agreed with your call for the NY region, but today, I’m not convinced MSU will be there. I think Brockport or Manhattanville will benefit from MSU’s decline, and Manhattanville squeaks by.

18. oshdude Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:13 pm

    Der … scratch the George Fox part. I think the West will have eight teams.

19. d3fanatic Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:18 pm

    what i don’t understand and someone please help me, how is it possible that texas-tyler is ranked 5th when they have an in region percentage that is 84 points higher than the next closest team? somebody please clue me in to how this is possible

20. Pat Coleman Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:25 pm

    Fanatic: There are many selection criteria, of which in-region winning percentage is only one. OWP must be an issue.

21. d3fanatic Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:29 pm

    in saying OWP ur kind of meaning strength of schedule right?

22. dukes Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:31 pm

    My question regarding Texas Tyler, is if they have such a weak schedule, and selection criteria, how have they been rated so high in the weekly polls? It seems to me that those should be based at least on a similar criteria. I would hope that a “Top 10″ team in the country, would get a bid.

23. d3fanatic Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:35 pm

    along with ur comment duke, you would think a “Top 10″ team would get in, especially when the only other teams in contention aren’t even in the top 25

24. Ralph Turner Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:37 pm

    Oshdude, I am glad that you brought that up.

    I am guardedly optimistic that we get that 8-team regional. I didn’t want to tout the Concordia-TX/UT-Tyler pair too brashly. I think that they are good teams; I just don’t know if they are better than the Suffolk/Rochester pair. Both Suffolk and Rochester did not have stellar weeks, while CTX and UTT were idle.

    My ideal 8-team regional: #1Chapman/#8Tyler; #2GFU/#7ULV; #3McMurry/#6Linfield; #4CTX/#5Trinity TX.

    I want #8 Tyler ’s Booher going against #1 Chapman’s Kitchens.

    Do you think everyone has a better chance of knocking off Chapman in 6-team or an 8-team region?

25. dixon Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:40 pm

    I think that if NY is an 8 team region, Castleton will be send to the NY. I am just not up on my New England geography.

    I dont think that Rochester stacks up against all team in the C-Pool. Rochester only makes it since they are the highest NY seeded team. I believe that Ralph and I decided that Rochester sits if the first 8 teams are not chosen with respect to the region.

    How many team were knocked down since they play a tournament that guarentees two losses for all but one team. it make sense to not have a tournament under these condition. Imagine George Fox or Linfield with two more losses. I bet one sits allowing an ASC team to play.

26. Pat Coleman Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:42 pm

    Unfortunately, the NCAA doesn’t care much how we rank teams.

27. BaseballFan Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:46 pm

    Or fortunately, the NCAA doesnt care-couldnt resist

28. oshdude Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:50 pm

    So you guys still have Suffolk ahead of Southern Maine? I’m not so sure. It’s close, but I give the edge to S. Maine after the tourneys.

    I just don’t think all three eight-team regionals will be in the northeast. The biggest snag is whether Tyler is worthy of a bid. I think CTX is in with a late bid. Are the updated West rankings heading into the tourneys a done deal? If they are, then I think Tyler is on the table for the last bid, and the West gets two of the last three bids (over S. Maine, Rochester and a couple others).

29. Pat Coleman Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:57 pm

    “Or fortunately, the NCAA doesnt care-couldnt resist”

    Touche. In basketball and football we do a better job ranking teams than the NCAA does but the track record is short on baseball.

30. oshdude Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:58 pm

    Ralph: Do you think everyone has a better chance of knocking off Chapman in 6-team or an 8-team region?

    Me: Is there a third option?

31. ecfaninri Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 12:01 am

    I agree with most of the New England and New York teams except for Suffolk. If a team from New England gets shipped to New York… how about So. Maine - 32 wins and not in? Or Amherst?

32. new england Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 12:05 am

    oshdude? I agree S. Maine played above their heads in the LE Tournament…but, how do you explain their 0-2 record Vs Suffolk?

33. dukes Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 12:15 am

    do you guys know if they will make calls tonight like they usually do for the pool B and C teams or if they will just announce them tommorrow?

34. BaseballFan Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 12:20 am

    They will call the coaches if they want them to and they announce them tomorrow

35. new england Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 12:21 am

    Suffolk has 29 Wins…2 over S. Maine…
    Amherst? living on on the Winning % of Trinity…
    Marginal at best in any other conf.

36. Ralph Turner Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 12:33 am

    # oshdude Says:
    May 11th, 2008 at 11:58 pm

    Ralph: Do you think everyone has a better chance of knocking off Chapman in 6-team or an 8-team region?

    Me: Is there a third option?
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    McMurry got Chapman, but the McM pitcher that beat Chapman may be out with a bad shoulder (Brent Voorhees). McM has had more injuries, freak or otherwise, than any year that I can remember. They lost three pitchers before the first game, as I understand!

    http://athletics.mcm.edu/sports/baseball/2008/mcm-cu2.htm

37. SIDerman1 Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 12:36 am

    Just a couple of random thoughts. First, with announcements not coming until late Sunday night, and playoffs starting on Wednesday, this leaves very little time for teams and their fans to arrange transportation to their respective sites. The NCAA ought to push the starts back a couple of days at least. For those of us who will have to fly, this gets very expensive for support personnel and parents and fans who aren’t covered by the NCAA. In virtually all D-3 playoffs, the NCAA schedule is not very fan-friendly.

    Number two, I certainly hope the NCAA will quit treated that “1 playoff team for every 6 .5 schools” as some sort of “11th commandment” and use it as a guideline, not holy writ. 54 teams (and other odd numbers in other playoffs) is very hard to work with. Let’s face it; theoretically, a 6-team tournament ought to be easier to win than an 8-team tournament because fewer games will be played, thus pitching depth (or lack of it) is less of an issue. The tournament should be a 64-team field, with 8 regionals and 8 teams in each region. I hope it will eventually move to that … At least they got rid of that atrocius 7-team field which some of us played under last year!

38. oshdude Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 12:49 am

    New England-
    I don’t have an answer to that, and that’s why I think they’re both out. I don’t know which would/should be ranked higher. My hunch is S. Maine is ahead right now, but what do I know? I know I can’t explain away the HTH wins, that’s for sure.

    S. Maine and Suffolk are so close that I think it’s both or neither. Suffolk’s HTH wins are great, but S. Maine has everyting else. Who wins in that case? Nobody, IMO. I’ve seen a similar scenario with recent basketball bids (La Crosse and Oshkosh) and the NCAA had both stay home.

39. dukes Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 1:31 am

    does anyone know if they have the 2am target like they did last year for the committee?

40. Major Texan Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 1:41 am

    That was the last thing I heard, Dukes… I find myself hoping they mean 2am EDT… I’m in the CST, and it would be almost time.

41. dixon Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 1:48 am

    One can only hope that 2am is the target deadline.

    When you start talking about the bubble team, just a little difference make or breaks a team. One win here or there w3oulf actually change the whole picture. Thus year the number of upsets in the tournaments were minimal so the number of bubble teams that receive a Pool C bid are higher than normal. Heidelburg loses to Marietta and we stop talking about Suffolk/Southern Maine/Concordia-Texas

    I too want to see Booher going against Kitchens - alas it is such a long shot.

42. dixon Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 1:51 am

    INDIANAPOLIS—The NCAA Division III Baseball Committee has announced the 54 teams that will compete in the 2008 NCAA Division III Baseball Championship.

43. dixon Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 1:52 am

    New England:

    May 14-18
    Hosted by Eastern College Athletic Conference, Harwich, Massachusetts
    1. Trinity (Connecticut) (37-0)
    2. Wheaton (Massachusetts) (32-8)
    3. Keene State (33-9)
    4. Southern Maine (32-12)
    5. Western New England (31-11)
    6. St. Joseph’s (Maine) (28-16)
    7. Worcester State (23-16)
    8. Castleton State (20-10)

44. dixon Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 1:52 am

    South Regional

    Hosted by USA South and Old Dominion, Danville, Virginia
    1. Salisbury (38-2)
    2. Johns Hopkins (34-5)
    3. Piedmont (33-12)
    4. Lynchburg (30-11)
    5. Christopher Newport (28-12)
    6. Randolph-Macon (25-15)

45. dixon Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 1:53 am

    Mideast regional:

    Hosted by Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, Terre Haute, Indiana
    1. Heidelberg (37-8)
    2. Wooster (34-9)
    3. Calvin (32-8)
    4. Rose-Hulman (31-13)
    5. Adrian (30-10)
    6. Transylvania (31-12)

46. dixon Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 1:53 am

    Mid-Atlantic Regional

    Hosted by Kean University, Newark, New Jersey
    1. Kean (35-9)
    2. Rowan (30-12)
    3. The College of New Jersey (28-10)
    4. Penn State-Behrend (34-10)
    5. Messiah (27-16)
    6. DeSales (24-18-1)
    7. Keystone (30-10)
    8. Gwynedd-Mercy (21-18)

47. oshdude Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 1:54 am

    There’s our answer, I guess. S. Maine was better than Suffolk …

48. dixon Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 1:54 am

    New York Reguional:

    Hosted by Ithaca College, Auburn, New York
    1. Cortland State (38-3)
    2. Ithaca (28-11)
    3. Rensselaer (30-10)
    4. Montclair State (26-18)
    5. Eastern Connecticut State (29-13)
    6. Farmingdale (23-13)
    7. Ohio Wesleyan (28-17)
    8. Grove City (18-16)

49. dixon Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 1:55 am

    Central:

    Hosted by Augustana College (Illinois), Moline, Illinois
    1. Illinois Wesleyan (33-9)
    2. Wisconsin-Stevens Point (28-14)
    3. Augustana (Illinois) (32-11)
    4. Wartburg (26-13)
    5. Linfield (30-10)
    6. Webster (28-13)

50. oshdude Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 1:55 am

    Northeast gets three eight-teamers? Who knew?

51. dixon Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 1:55 am

    West Regional:
    Hosted by McMurry University, Abilene, Texas
    1. Chapman (35-3)
    2. George Fox (28-12)
    3. McMurry (29-17)
    4. Cal State East Bay (26-14)
    5. Trinity (Texas) (32-13)
    6. La Verne (25-14-1)

52. dixon Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 1:56 am

    Midwest regional:

    Hosted by University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh, Oshkosh, Wisconsin
    1. St. Thomas (Minnesota) (31-7)
    2. Wisconsin-Whitewater (35-8)
    3. Carthage (35-8)
    4. Wisconsin-Oshkosh (29-9)
    5. St. Scholastica (32-4)
    6. Knox (15-23)

53. oshdude Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 1:57 am

    At least I got the movement among the regions right …

54. oshdude Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 2:01 am

    East Bay over Emory?

55. oshdude Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 2:06 am

    Adrian the last team in? Didn’t see Rose-Hulman in there. Had ‘em on the table for the last bid, but like fourth at the table.

56. dixon Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 2:09 am

    And to think I convinced Ralph to put Emory above Cal State East Bay

    and I am confuse why ship 2 Mideast teams to New York instead of sending of keeping them in their own region.

    New York Regional:
    ….
    7. Ohio Wesleyan (28-17)
    8. Grove City (18-16)

57. oshdude Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 2:19 am

    Maybe a matter of which team got Grove City – Cortland or Heidelberg? Geography and conference matchups wouldn’t have been affected if OWU and Grove were in the Mideast. In fact, geography WAS affected in moving OWU to NY, so that makes me think Cortland earned Grove City over Heidelberg.

    No offense to Grove City, but I think that has to be the justification.

58. oshdude Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 2:41 am

    Although Ohio Wesleyan could have been the 7th seed in the Mideast, making an all-NCAC first-round matchup of OWU vs. Wooster. That’s more likely the case, although the one above isn’t bad.

59. AG Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 5:25 am

    I’ve been saying for a week that Hopkins would be sent South…but I had it as an 8-team region with Emory in along with MU or NCWC.

60. AG Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 5:28 am

    The 2-5 game in the South should be a beaut…JHU and its high octane offense against CNU and one of the nation’s top pitchers in Moreland.

61. Ralph Turner Says:
    May 12th, 2008 at 8:52 am

    As for moving teams to other brackets, I am glad to see that.

    Then we can compare the regions more easily. Linfield is a good example.

    I am glad that they moved OWU and Grove City to the “New York”.

    Thanks, Jim for the acknowledgment on the CSU-EB/Emory question. Can we infer from this selection that #6 in the West was stronger than #4 in the South in the eyes of the committee?

    Against teams in the tournament, CSU-EB was 0-4 versus Chapman, and was 2-1 vs GFU. CSU-EB also is 2-1 versus SCIAC Pool A LaVerne and 2-1 versus NWC Pool A Linfield. Since we don’t know the final West Region Rankings, CSU-EB may be 2-5 versus ranked teams or as good as 6-7.

    They had the 2-0 result vs WashUSTL where Emory only split the series 1-1. The St Louis trip may have “sealed the deal” for CSU-EB

62. Harold Says:
    May 13th, 2008 at 7:12 pm

    I can not believe that the selection committee left Tyler out. What a disappointment.

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