D3baseball.com Daily Dose

D3baseball.com has evaluated all the data that we can assemble and wishes to provide an informative, possibly fictional, scenario about the National Selection Committee deliberations. We have used the third (but not the final) Regional Rankings. We have combed the links to team websites and schedules to find out common opponents, games from in-region ranked teams and the other criteria that are in the Handbook. We do not have access to the OWP/OOWP, and we may have missed pertinent head-to-head and common opponent outcomes. With those caveats, let’s project the field.

Pool A bids are automatic. See Playoff Central for a list of Pool A bids awarded.

——— POOL B ———

The D3baseball.com selection committee looks at the Pool B bids intently and sees the first five teams easily are deserving of a Pool B bid.

Salisbury, Chapman, Ithaca, Piedmont, St Scholastica.

Remaining in Pool B are Emory (South #4) CSU-East Bay (West #6), Concordia IL (Central #6) and Juniata (Mid-Atlantic #9), Rochester Tech New York #6).

Emory is 25-11-1/23-9-1. (In-region percentage is .671) Records versus In-region ranked teams: Adrian 0-1, Methodist 1-0-1, and Piedmont 1-2. Emory’s in-region record is 2-3-1

Juniata is 26-12/ 25-9 (.735) (They have 2 losses to St Scholastica in Pool B, and went 1-0 vs. Elizabethtown in Mid-Atlantic Region.)

Concordia IL, 32-13/ 28-12 (.700), has in-region win over Wartburg and Carthage and losses to Augustana and IWU to give an in-region record versus ranked teams of 2-2. However they went 3-2 in the Northern Athletics Conference tourney and lost to Rockford. The 2 losses in the last week did not help Concordia IL in Pool B consideration.

CSU-East Bay is 26-14/ 20-10 (.667). Results versus In-Region ranked teams, 0-4 versus Chapman, GFU 2-1. CSU-EB also is 2-1 versus SCIAC Pool A LaVerne and 2-1 versus NWC Pool A Linfield. Since we don’t know the final West Region Rankings, CSU-EB may be 2-5 versus ranked teams or as good as 6-7. In common opponents, CSU-EB is 2-0 versus Washington U/St. Louis, whereas Emory is only 1-1.

Emory was the highest ranked team in the third Regional Rankings at 4th in the South. We think that the committee will determine that the criteria favor Emory, which gets the 6th Pool B bid.

After the committee has decided the six Pool B schools, they return CSU-East Bay, Juniata, Concordia-IL and RIT back to Pool C for re-consideration.

——— POOL C ———

The D3baseball.com selection Committee began looking at the best teams from the various regions. The best Pool C candidates by region were

Central: Carthage; Mid-Atlantic: Rowan; Mideast: Wooster; Midwest: UW-Whitewater; New England: Eastern Connecticut State; New York: Rochester, but barely; South: Lynchburg: West: George Fox. Those 8 bids were easily given.

With 6 bids remaining, the Committee saw these schools by region.

Central: Augustana; Simpson; Concordia IL
Mid-Atlantic: New Jersey (TCNJ); Montclair State; Manhattenville, Juniata
Mideast: Adrian; Thomas More
Midwest: UW-Oshkosh; Ripon
New England: Suffolk; Southern Maine
New York: Brockport
South: Methodist
West: Concordia-Austin; UT-Tyler; CSU-East Bay.

They looked at the regional criteria and gave the next Pool C bid to Augustana. They moved Simpson to the table and re-evaluated. Adrian got a Pool C bid. (Thomas More moved up.) TCNJ got the eleventh. UW-Oshkosh got the twelfth .

The teams at the table looked like this:

Central: Simpson
Mid-Atlantic: Montclair State, Manhattanville
Mideast: Thomas More
Midwest: Ripon
New England: Suffolk, Southern Maine
New York: Brockport
South: Methodist
West: Concordia-Austin; UT-Tyler

Montclair State got #13, although Rochester may have been the 12th or 13th best Pool C team.
We project that the last Pool C bid came between ultimately came between Concordia-Austin and Suffolk. Suffolk is 29-12, 26-11 (In-region percentage .711.) Suffolk lost 2 games to St Joseph’s ME this last weekend. Whether that hurts their Pool C chances versus given them 2 more results versus in-region ranked teams is a concern. Versus in-region ranked teams, Suffolk is 2-4 versus St. Joe’s Maine, 1-0 vs. Western New England, 2-0 vs. Southern Maine, 0-1 vs. TCNJ, and 0-1 vs. ECSU, 5-6 on the season.

Concordia-TX is 30-16/ 27-13 (..675) in-region. (CTX is 1-4 versus McMurry, 3-2 versus UT-Tyler or 4-6 versus West Region ranked teams. Concordia also split a DH with Trinity TX.)

Ripon was 27-10/19-7 (.730) but only played UW-Stevens Point among Regionally ranked teams, with whom they split a DH.

Selecting Concordia-Texas makes the 6th team in the West. Chapman and LaVerne fly to Texas and probably fly NWC Champion Linfield to Texas. Trinity TX and Concordia-Austin would bus to Abilene. Pool C George Fox gets flown to either Wisconsin or to Rock Island to complete a bracket. Selecting Suffolk would mean that both NWC teams Linfield and George Fox would be flown to Texas, and Suffolk or another team might be sent out of New England. If Suffolk and Concordia-Texas were listed in the baseball standings, Suffolk would have a half-game lead over Concordia-Texas. What would switching one outcome in a season do for Concordia-Texas? What about that loss to Texas Lutheran or to Howard Payne in ASC-West Division play? If Concordia-Texas wins either of those games, then they host the ASC Post-season tournament. It is probably that close, for everyone left on the table!

We think that Suffolk gets #14.