Clearing the bases - Playoff edition
May
2007
With the playoffs behind us. it is time to see how I did in my predictions. Those who are regulars at the discussion board know my preseason predictions was only third best. The preseason poll had all eight teams ranked from the start with 5 in the top 10. The surprising thing is that the last poll was a worse predictor of success since in the May 8 poll there was only 4 teams in the top 10 and Carthage was missing from the Top 30 (I expect them to shoot up in the poll released this week). So by region:
Mideast Regional
Marietta was a surprise winner of the regional. So much of a surprise that many Marietta fans were reluctant to pick them. Thats in the past and the Marietta bandwagon is headed to Wisconsin. This is the second year Wooster has rolled into the regional looking for a ticket to the Championship and come up empty. The Scots did extract a bit or revenge when they eliminated Otterbein. If you remember last year, it was the Cardinal’s who gave Wooster their second loss. Our cinderella team, Ohio Wesleyan, was able to force Marietta to play a second regional championship game so give me two out of three .
New England Regional
Once again our cinderella team made it to the championship game but Eastern Connecticut did not disappoint anyone other than the teams they faced. Wheaton never got the chance to play Eastern Connecticut as they were 0-2 against the Owls of Keene State. Our predictions were a little off imagine if Keene state did not have Wheaton’s number we would be sitting pretty. Okay only one of three taking us even so far.
South
Are you seeing a trend? Our cinderella team loses to the team we picked to “most likely to disappoint”. Ferrum comes within one inning of making their first Championship but lose to Emory in an extra innings game. Where was Salisbury? They only got to play on the third day only because rain delayed the tournament. Otherwise The Eagle are flying high and should represent the south well. This brings me to down one
New York
Now I am starting to feel like the seer I am. Trinity (Conn.) nearly made it to the Championship game but found out just like Ithaca that beating Cortland twice in the same tournament is pretty tough. Our champion pick had to win twice on the final day but did so to advance. Ithaca once again is staying home. I dont think it is me but I started covering Division III baseball the same year Cortland State made beating Ithaca in the New York regional a yearly thing. Coincidence? Either way, I had this regional pegged - three for three gets me two above .500
Mid-Atlantic
I have been high on Kean all season and they were my pick to make the tournament for the first time and there they are. I expected New Jersey in the Championship game but “cha-ching” score me another point as they fail to advance after winning the NJAC. I will not claim to predict Johns Hopkins as my cinderella but all the non NJAC teams did remarkably well. Kean was on a roll for the tournament and nobody was going to stop them. Give me two points and a push.
Central
Is anyone hotter than Carthage? I think not. Luther did well ending their season on the next to last game. Give me a push here also since Augustana had a better series from the #6 spot in the regional. Washington was 0-2 again. They bring a quality team and had the unfortunate luck in playing Carthage (did I mention the 18,19 games in a row they won) and Luther. Illinois Wesleyan had the tournament to forget as they were out 0-2 on their home field. Give me two for two here
Midwest
St. Olaf had a good run, not to mention the misfortune to run into the pitching performance of the playoffs in Baitinger’s no-hitter - minus one. Plus one for getting UW-Oshkosh in the Championship game but losing a point for picking the Tommies to advance. There will be good crowds for UW-Stevens Point at the Championship as they ride the arm and bat of Jordon Zimmerman. This nets me just one point for this regional.
West
Chapman was a safe pick and squeaked out another trip to Wisconsin. The Pacific Lutheran boys gave them all they had and like Ferrum - fell a little short. Pomona-Pitzer, 1-2 in the tournament, beat the only sub .500 team and lost twice to Texas Lutheran netting me a point. Speaking of Texas Lutheran, the bull dogs were a force in the ninth inning. In the game they were eliminated, I don’t think anyone thought they were really out until the last out was made. They are the comeback kids of the playoffs. Lets see, three more points giving me a 15-7-2 record. Not bad.
Any comments on the playoffs?
May 21st, 2007 at 1:16 pm
Jim, this inaugural season of D3baseball.com (in this current format) has only re-affirmed my assessment that there is incredible parity in Division III.
I picked 7 of the 8 finalists when the brackets had been seeded, but I am not sure that I could have done half that many in February. Even the ABCA didn’t have Carthage on the board. A Top 30 will only have “30″! The number of close games (i.e., extra innings, “walk-offs”, “saves” and decisive 8th inning rallies) was incredible. Once again, we proved that “it’s not over ’til it’s over”.
The New England webcast was spectacular. That was a quality production and the serious baseball fan was in “hog-heaven”. It held my attention much later than I should have watched!
Finally, I am excited at the amount of traffic that D3baseball.com got this last week. The site seemed to mature quickly. D3baseball.com is attracting knowledgeable fans who are “hungry” for quality D3 baseball content, and something more than a “Yahoo chatroom”. Fortunately, those hardy souls and their friends are finding us.
I am looking forward to D3 “World Series”. (Now all we need is a catchy name for the 2007 Division III National Championships.)
May 21st, 2007 at 11:40 pm
I had Carthage #1 all season
I actually had them #13 in my preseason poll so I guess they have exceeded even my own expectations.
BigPoppa’s Preseason Poll:(I missed on Emory)
1. Chapman
4. Marietta
5. Wisconsin-Stevens Point
6. Eastern Connecticut
13. Carthage
15. Cortland State
19. Kean
May 21st, 2007 at 11:41 pm
Here is the complete poll I generated in early February:
1. Chapman
2. Montclair State
3. The College of New Jersey
4. Marietta
5. Wisconsin-Stevens Point
6. Eastern Connecticut
7. Southern Maine (Oops)
8. Wisconsin Whitewater (oops!)
9. Wheaton, MA
10. NC Wesleyan
11. Wooster
12. Otterbein
13. Carthage
14. St. Thomas
15. Cortland State
16. Augustana
17. Aurora (Way off)
18. Millsaps
19. Kean
20. Texas Lutheran
21. George Fox
22. Ripon
23. Ithaca
24. St. Olaf
25. Trinity, TX
26. Rowan
27. RPI
28. Washington, MO
29. Cal-Lutheran
30. St. Scholastica
May 22nd, 2007 at 7:04 am
Of the filed of 53 there were 33 conference champions. Of those 33 there were 11 teams rated in the May 8, 2007 ABCA poll. I left those teams out of the statistics. That left 22 conference champs that were not rated in the poll and 20 other teams. Of those 20 there were 13 that were rated in the poll and 7 that weren’t. Here is how those groups fared in the tournament. Least successful were the conference champs that were not rated in the ABCA poll. I’d rate the other two groups about equally successful. What we don’t know is how the seven ABCA rated teams that the NCAA did not invite would have done.
Conference Champs / Not Rated
Austin College (TX) 0-2
Bridgewater (VA) 0-2
Carthage (WI) 4-0
Curry (MA) 0-2
Elizabethtown (PA) 1-2
Ferrum (VA) 4-2
Frostburg St (MD) 0-2
Hope (MI) 1-2
Luther (IA) 2-2
Manhattanville (NY) 0-2
Mt. St. Joseph (OH) 0-2
Ohio Wesleyan 3-2
Otterbein (OH) 1-2
Ripon (WI) 1-2
Skidmore (NY) 1-2
St. Joseph’s (ME) 0-2
Villa Julie (MD) 0-2
Webster (MO) 1-2
Western N E (MA) 1-2
Westfield State (MA) 0-2
Wilkes (PA) 0-2
Williams (MA) 2-2
Wins 22
Losses 42
Winning Percentage 0.344
Out in two 10
Percentage 0.455
Finalists 3
Percentage 0.136
Winners 1
Percentage 0.045
Rated Not / Conference Champs
Chapman 5-1
Emory 4-1
Illinois Wesleyan 0-2
Keene State 3-2
Marietta 4-1
Methodist 1-2
Salisbury 1-2
St. Olaf 1-2
St. Scholastica 0-2
Texas-Dallas 2-2
UW-Oshkosh 3-2
Washington U. 0-2
Wooster 2-2
Wins 26
Losses 23
Winning Percentage 0.531
Out in two 3
Percentage 0.231
Finalists 5
Percentage 0.385
Winners 3
Percentage 0.231
Not Conference Champs / Not Rated
Augustana 3-2
George Fox 0-2
Ithaca 3-2
Kean 4-0
St. John Fisher 2-2
Trinity (Conn.) 2-2
York (Pa.) 2-2
Wins 16
Losses 8
Winning Percentage 0.667
Out in two 1
Percentage 0.143
Finalists 3
Percentage 0.429
Winners 1
Percentage 0.143
May 22nd, 2007 at 9:08 am
Jim and Pat,
I think BigPoppa is hinting for a possible position at D3Baseball.com!!!
May 22nd, 2007 at 11:11 am
Does any one have a link to the 2007 ABCA all region players. I see that some schools are announcing players that were recognized. The ABCA website is showing 2006.
May 22nd, 2007 at 11:38 am
Ralph, thanks for the kind words about our NE regional webcasts — they mean a lot when they have come from you and all the D3 baseball diehards on this site. We had an unbelievably fun, exhausting time, saw some great baseball, and hopefully opened some eyes (even if they couldn’t stay open all the way to the 16th inning) about the level of video production that’s attainable for webcast at the D3 level.
As a followup, because folks have asked, the finals are to be webcast as a NCAAsports production via CSTV.com, with video production provided by a local-to-Appleton station. (One of our guys will actually be on site for the NCAA for this purpose, to take two cables and plug them into the webcast encoder, and click a few buttons, so if you see the Pitch Doctor in Appleton, please say hello. :-))
And finally, let me echo the many comments that compliment all at D3baseball.com — including and especially the work of Pat and all of his volunteers who spent so many years establishing the reputation of the brand and its expected quality with D3football and D3hoops — for creating a superbly-well-informed and vibrant community for Division III baseball.
Enjoy the finals, all.
Steve Clay
D3Cast
(not — for those of you who don’t know — formally affiliated with D3baseball/D3sports, but just good friends)
May 22nd, 2007 at 1:03 pm
Might I ask how the hell Southern Maine got ranked #8 in New England by the ABCA??? That is a joke.
May 22nd, 2007 at 4:21 pm
These were pretty interesting regionals, even though I still have some issues with some of the selections. But does anybody know when the all-region teams will be announced?
May 22nd, 2007 at 4:41 pm
Coaches prime their teams for end-of-season tourney play by calling the tourneys the “second season”.
I went back to the April 24, 2007 ABCA Poll to check on the outcomes of the 8 teams that were listed in the ABCA Top 30, but didn’t get an NCAA bid, to evaluate the impact of the second season. Here is what I found.
#15 Millsaps — SCAC Tourney 2-2; lost 2 games to Austin College (Pool A)
#18 Wartburg — IIAC Tourney 2-2: lost 2 games to Luther College (Pool A)
#20 SUNY Brockport — SUNYAC Tourney 1-2; eliminated by Cortland St (Pool A)
#23 Wash&Jeff — Won Pres AC Tourney 3-1; “Pool B contender”; Lost to Keystone in ECAC.
#24 Ramapo — NJAC Tourney 0-2; Lost to Montclair and Kean.
#25 Rhodes — SCAC Tourney 1-2; Lost to Millsaps and Austin College.
#26 Southern Maine — LEC Tourney 2-2; Lost to Keene St and ECSU.
Fortunately for W&J, the PresAC gets its Pool A bid in 2008. Austin College appears to be the Cinderella at conference tourney time. I also think that the parity in D3 is much more pervasive than we initially think.
The #30 team in that April 24th ABCA Poll? Marietta!
May 22nd, 2007 at 9:37 pm
Errata, “7 teams” that did not receive bids.