The amateur bracketologist is back
May
2007
Hello everyone, the amateur bracketologist is back.
Going into this weekend, I stated I would rank the top 30 teams nationally in regards to their chances for a
pool B/C bid to the NCAA tournament. To do this, I first ordered the NCAA committees regionally ranked teams in order of their in-region winning percentage and then calculated as many QWOI power rankings as I could for the teams on the list.
By my calculations, if your team does not have a regional record above .700 (35 teams currently do) you will probably be on the outside looking in. Of course a lot can change with the conference tournaments this weekend. These rankings do include teams that still have yet to play their conference tournament. I did this
so the fans of those teams had an idea of where they sit if they do not win their conference tournament and the AQ.
So without further ado, here are my top 30 teams for the remaining 20 Pool B/C bids:
1. Chapman (CA) Pool B/C
2. Wooster (OH) Pool C
3. Emory (GA) Pool B/C
4. Kean (NJ) Pool C
5. Eastern CT State Pool C
6. Salisbury (MD) Pool B/C
7. IL Wesleyan Pool C
8. St. Olaf (MN) Pool C
9. UW-Oshkosh Pool C
10. Otterbein Pool C
11. TX-Dallas Pool C
12. Washington (MO) Pool B/C
13. Marietta (OH) Pool C
14. St. Scholastica Pool B/C
15. Ithaca (NY) Pool B/C
16. Transylvania (KY) Pool C
17. Washington & Jeff (PA) Pool B/C
18. George Fox Pool C
19. Luther (IA) Pool C
20. Williams (MA) Pool C
21. Millsaps (MS) Pool C
22. Rhodes (TN) Pool C
23. Wartburg (IA) Pool C
24. St. Thomas (MN) Pool C
25. Keene State (NH) Pool C
26. SUNY Oneonta Pool C
27. Thomas More (KY) Pool B/C
28. Trinity (CT) Pool C
29. Rensselaer (NY) Pool C
30. Ramapo (NJ) Pool C
The committee does not look to pull equally from each region. They will take the top remaining Pool B then Pool C teams remaining.
My thought is that George Fox is the last lock on the board regardless of what happens to teams in their conference tournaments. Feel free to debate, but I feel these are the only teams that will be able to legitimately say they have a shot at a pool B/C bid come Sunday night/Monday morning based on regional record and QOWI power ranking. Sunday afternoon I will have my final Bracketology prediction.
May 11th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
Let’s also remember that there are Pool A bids to be awarded for these conferences from the Tourneys this weekend:
1. Chapman (CA) Pool B/C
2. Wooster (OH) Pool C NCAC
3. Emory (GA) Pool B/C
4. Kean (NJ) Pool C
5. Eastern CT State Pool C LEC
6. Salisbury (MD) Pool B/C
7. IL Wesleyan Pool C CCIW
8. St. Olaf (MN) Pool C MIAC
9. UW-Oshkosh Pool C WIAC
10. Otterbein Pool C OAC
11. TX-Dallas Pool C
12. Washington (MO) Pool B/C
13. Marietta (OH) Pool C OAC
14. St. Scholastica Pool B/C
15. Ithaca (NY) Pool B/C
16. Transylvania (KY) Pool C HCAC
17. Washington & Jeff (PA) Pool B/C Pres AC (non Pool A)
18. George Fox Pool C
19. Luther (IA) Pool C IIAC
20. Williams (MA) Pool C NESCAC
21. Millsaps (MS) Pool C
22. Rhodes (TN) Pool C
23. Wartburg (IA) Pool C IIAC
24. St. Thomas (MN) Pool C MIAC
25. Keene State (NH) Pool C LEC
26. SUNY Oneonta Pool C Hosting ECAC Tourney
27. Thomas More (KY) Pool B/C Pres AC (non Pool A)
28. Trinity (CT) Pool C Did not qualify for NESCAC
29. Rensselaer (NY) Pool C
30. Ramapo (NJ) Pool C
There are 9 Pool A tourneys to be determined for teams listed in the rankings copied above. Also, the net effect of the Pres AC tourney will be to inflict in-region losses (one of the criteria) on W&J and/or Thomas More, in effect hurting their Pool B/C chances. SUNY Oneonta can “inflict damage” on the Pool C chances of RIT, Oswego State and SJF in the ECAC tourney.
The other teams have completed their seasons.
Corrections appreciated.
May 11th, 2007 at 12:34 pm
Would be really hard to have Luther higher than Wartburg. Wartburg is higher in the region rankings, won the regular season in the conference. They play today, but right now I think Wartburg has to be higher based on the region rankings, unless you’re more or less predicting Luther does better in the tournament than Wartburg.
Both should also be ahead of Washington in the overall order if this is in order of strength of the teams. Washington has a better chance to get in (which is complete BS and the flaw of this system), but Luther and Wartburg are higher ranked in the region.
I don’t see York or Methodist in here anywhere, but do see Millsaps and Rhodes. That’s not consistent with regional rankings either.
May 11th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
What are Washington and Jeffersons chances of making the tournament? and in the OAC right now Capital is 2-0 and if they happen to win that will it knock W&J out and let marietta and otterbein in even though W&J has a better overall record than them both
May 11th, 2007 at 7:44 pm
I have one question on the pool C. How can you have a team like Oneonat in the regionals over a team like Brockport also in the SUNYAC? If you look at the strength of schedule and the quality wins between the two it does not seem like it would be a tough decision.
I have also seen Cortland play this year. They are currently unbeatable I believe. Who else has a pick on who might win it all?
May 11th, 2007 at 8:49 pm
you guys are a little slow with what`s going on. I noticed that you still like Transylvania for some reason. Sure you go by some point system or the NCAA rankings but i was out watching tourney play today and seen Transylvania get beat by the #3 seed team and yesterday get beat by the #4 seed team. I believe someone is high up on a team I watched is a yes a pretty good team but believe me not a ranked team. Not even a top 50 team. Very much over rated this team. Thanks you all
May 11th, 2007 at 9:40 pm
Transy didn’t lose that second game until after this first post went up.
And yes, since the point is to emulate the NCAA selection process, go figure, they use the NCAA selection process.
May 12th, 2007 at 12:43 am
I agree….i find it hard to believe Brockport is no where to be seen in the NY region rankings. A 21-11 record……5-7 record vs region ranked teams.
May 12th, 2007 at 8:50 am
going back out to watch college baseball today……looks like the way things are going the NCAA D3 committee who selects are going to have a tough time……knowing a little about the OAC (Ohio) and the HCAC (Heartland Conference) which are two very tough conferences in the Mideast/midwest. With Capital winning the OAC tourney……wow what are they going to do…….take 3 or 4 teams out of that conference…..give me a break……should be no friggin way…….if that the case, there should be 3 or 4 out of the HCAC …..mayebe just Capital (of course) and Marietta or Otterbien or Heidelberg should be just two at the most….my picks Capital and Marietta………..hell just flip a coin thanks see ya later
May 12th, 2007 at 8:53 am
one more thing Thomas More which i know a little about……i don`t think they are a ranked regional team either …..buts that`s only my opinion
May 12th, 2007 at 11:57 am
I’ll go on the record as saying Thomas More won’t be in. Thiel is probably ahead of them in the pecking order now after beating them twice in the tournament, Thiel’s win over Marietta, and being 29-14. Unfortunately, it seems like it’s going to be tough for Thiel to get in, so I don’t think Thomas More will.
Any addenda/adjustments based on the teams I brought up above that aren’t listed, and the oddities in the “draft order” vs. the regional rankings for some regions? Mainly the South, since it’s all but settled. The Mideast, Central and Midwest are going to be fluid, obviously.
May 12th, 2007 at 12:52 pm
Illinois Wes, and Wooster both losing will cost 2 more POOL C bids and Otterbein could be joing them today.
POOL B
1.Chapman
2.Emory
3.Salisbury
4.Ithaca
5.York
6.Washington U
POOL C
1.Wooster
2.Kean
3.Illinois Wesleyan
4.UW-Oshkosh
5.Luther
6.St Thomas
7.St John Fisher
8.Methodist
9.UT-Dallas
10.St Schoalastica
11.Marietta
12.George Fox
13.Keene St
14.Washington & Jefferson
May 12th, 2007 at 3:08 pm
Otterbein stays alive and forces a second game against Capital.
May 12th, 2007 at 3:40 pm
I agree with jturk & frozenrope… I don’t understand why Brockport dropped off the NY region rankings. Their body of work over the season over shadows losing two very close games in the conference tournament.
They have a better winning percentage over the ranked teams then 3 of the teams that are ranked. And have given Cortland their only two losses against the regionally ranked teams and lost to them by one run in the conference tournament. Also, they have wins vs teams that are listed as pool C possibilities in ohter regions (Marietta and Keene).
If they should be awarded a bid, they will be a very worthy team that will take a top effort to beat and be more of a threat to win the regionaly then several of the teams listed in the NY rankings.
I feel they should still be in the mix and they will receive consideration.
May 12th, 2007 at 4:01 pm
Keene State is looking to push Eastern Conn into the Pool C discussion. They must have the advantage in the Little East Championship game (forced winner take all game today) with their ace rested (2+ innings in the LEC tourney).
May 12th, 2007 at 6:09 pm
Otterbein sweeps Capital to preserve a Pool C bid … oh yeah, and win the OAC.
May 12th, 2007 at 6:27 pm
I agree radley you make a good point….when you take everything into consideraiton….Brockport has as good a case as anyone
May 12th, 2007 at 7:02 pm
does marietta stiull have a shot of getting in at all because i think all their players are at home for summer vacation already?
May 12th, 2007 at 7:22 pm
I am in Mississippi, they’re in Ohio. But I would still bet a lot of money this isn’t the case. When the residence halls close, the baseball team members move so that they’re all in the same building and that building is kept open. The program also pays for meals and such at the dining facility, if I remember correctly.
I would be very very surprised if the players were at home, and would be curious as to how you came upon that.
May 12th, 2007 at 7:23 pm
out all day watching ball……….wow…….good for Otterbein…..made it a little easier for the NCAA………i guess it’s good to have a conference tournament…..usually the better team prevails………watch a little here and there today………Mount St. Joseph (from Cinncinati-in the HCAC) looks very strong…..if i`m not mistaken they beat a couple of high rated teams in the mideast region last year and wasn`t even rated themselves…….looked at roster ……most players are all back…..couple players that look very very good, lefthanded and bats left-rightfielder (senior) Michael Mayer and pitcher (senior) Chris Waite ……..draftable ? …….maybe …..i think so
May 12th, 2007 at 7:26 pm
My buddy plays there and he said that they did leave for sure. So they are not in. I dont understand why they would go home though because they have some big wins and played a rough schedule.
May 12th, 2007 at 7:27 pm
For those who care, here’s what I’ve got for the field. I know La Roche and Frostburg aren’t going to make it, but which one does will affect the balance of the regions and who might get shipped where. These are quite obviously not in seed order. The really obvious Pool C’s I didn’t put in parentheses, the rest I did.
New England +1
Curry, Western New England, ECSU, (Keene State), Westfield State, Williams, St. Joseph, Wheaton
New York -2
Cortland State, Ithaca, Liberty, Manhattanville
Mid-Atlantic 0/+1
(La Roche), Elizabethtown, Johns Hopkins, Wilkes, Kean, New Jersey, Gwynedd-Mercy, (Ramapo)
South +1/+2
(Frostburg), Ferrum, Salisbury, Emory, Bridgewater, Villa Julie, York, (Methodist), (Millsaps)
Mideast 0
Wooster, Otterbein, (Marietta), Mount St. Joseph, Hope, Ohio Wesleyan, (Washington & Jefferson)
Central 0
IWU, Carthage, (Wartburg), Luther, SLIAC, Washington
Midwest -1
St. Olaf, (St. Thomas), UW-Oshkosh, UW-Stevens Point, Ripon
West 0
Chapman, Texas Lutheran, Pacific Lutheran, Pomona Pitzer, Austin, (UT Dallas), (George Fox)
May 12th, 2007 at 7:34 pm
sorry also wanred to say i agree about Marietta…..they are not on summer vacation yet……..knowing Coach Brewer………notttttttt
sorry another thing…….the Mount St. Joseph (Cinncinati) play in the Midwest regionals last year …….not the Mideast…………i think Carthage and Washington University (St. Louis) remembers the Cinncinati team
May 12th, 2007 at 7:39 pm
damn…..i can`t get that right about the Cinncinati team (Mount)……..they played in the Central regionals last year………sorry 3rd time a charm
May 12th, 2007 at 7:48 pm
one more thing and quit bothering you all……..when does the regionals games start play…….is it Wednesday………i should know that but i have been very busy.
May 12th, 2007 at 8:28 pm
i’m not as sure as some of you are that methodist is in, but i’m with you spence…it’s unlikely that rhodes or millsaps will get in ahead of the monarchs…i can’t imagine how either of them would jump the monarchs since the ranking committee is supposed to use the selection criteria to produce regional rankings, aren’t they??? unless millsaps & rhodes played someone who is regional and moved from one win% level to another, there can’t be much change
May 12th, 2007 at 10:40 pm
Marietta sent all their guys home. If Capital beat Otterbein, then they might have stayed home. Now they will probably be called back to school on Monday.
May 13th, 2007 at 1:20 am
It’s time to get Rockford College into the mix. They are 29-12,NAC Champions. They have the nation’s # 1 pitcher who has tied an NCAA record in shutouts, leads in strikouts, the national pitcher of the week, the national hitter of the week (week ending May 6th), soundly defeated Augustana, & took Illinois Weselyn to 12 innings, & split with Ponoma Pitzer. Lets give Fabian Gomez an opportunity to set the NCAA Record for shutouts against Illinois Weselyn next week & take a long look at how we select & rank teams & take into consideration on this season’s accomplishments & not past seasons to determine who is in the “Big Dance.”
May 13th, 2007 at 7:41 am
The big thing in the NE region, as I look at it now, with Keene State taking Eastern Conn. to an elimination game and ending up with a seemingly compelling argument for a Pool C bid, is which team(s) get shipped out of New England? You have three Western Massachusetts teams (not that geography is the deciding factor — see Endicott last year) if Williams wins the NESCAC today. Do any of Williams/Westfield State/WNEC get sent further west?
If Keene gets a C, one team would have to be sent elsewhere, and if the remaining nationwide pool of Cs is strong enough to get two NE Pool C bids (which to me — simply an understudy to the amateur bracketologists — doesn’t seem likely), that would necessitate a second team winging west.
If Tufts wins twice today (I’d get in a plug for D3Cast here, but we’ve had spotty wireless connectivity at Williams, and I know yesterday’s game 2 was frustrating to watch, but hey, try it anyway), and Williams (yes, now ranked 3rd in NE in the NCAA regional poll, but would subsequently have lost TWICE to a team no longer ranked in the region) gets a Pool C, I’d almost think they’d have to go West.
Also, in past years, the committee has shown some reluctance to put Eastern and Wheaton in the same region. Will we finally see them together this year.
Lots of fun today, and that’s just six states.
Enjoy the long day, try and catch the NESCAC final on D3Cast, and get ready for a long late evening….
May 13th, 2007 at 8:49 am
I’m not sure what Marietta’s chances are, but I’m pretty sure the varsity roster isn’t at home yet. Maybe some of the players that are home are the guys who didn’t make the 25-man post season rsoter.
Besides, Marietta’s graduation isn’t until this coming weekend, so I’m sure the rest of the team is in Marietta.
May 13th, 2007 at 9:09 am
Welcome Dave.
The most pertinent things in your post about Rcokford and their chances to make the tourney are these:
In-Region Record 28-8
In-region results versus regionally ranked teams: 2-2 .
Please review the NCAA D3 Handbook and join us as we look at the criteria. Over the years, the criteria have become more transparent. No individual honors are considered like Pitcher of the Year. Past history was eliminated long ago.
Good luck to Rockford.
May 13th, 2007 at 10:39 am
I come up with 9.36 for Rockford’s QOWI.
For ease of calculation on my part, I sorted the schedule by home and away/neutral, then regional winning percentage.
Date Opp RR WPct. Pts
Mar 03, 2007 vs Pomona-Pitzer Coll. W 10-9 23-8 .742 15
Mar 03, 2007 vs Pomona-Pitzer Coll. 6-7 L 23-8 .742 7
*Apr 01, 2007 at Concordia Chicago 5-6 L 21-12 .636 5
*May 06, 2007 at Concordia Chicago W 5-0 21-12 .636 13
^May 11, 2007 vs Concordia Chicago W 7-5 21-12 .636 13
^May 12, 2007 vs Concordia Chicago W 10-6 21-12 .636 13
*Apr 22, 2007 at Marian College 5-15 L 17-18 .486 3
*Apr 22, 2007 at Marian College W 23-16 17-18 .486 11
^May 11, 2007 vs Marian College W 7-0 17-18 .486 11
*Apr 28, 2007 at Concordia Wisconsin W 5-4 16-19 .457 11
*Apr 28, 2007 vs Concordia Wisconsin W 11-4 16-19 .457 11
4/15/2007 at Univ. of Chicago 0-1 L 13-16 .448 3
4/15/2007 at Univ. of Chicago W 7-0 13-16 .448 11
*Apr 21, 2007 at Aurora University W 1-0 13-18 .419 11
*Apr 21, 2007 at Aurora University W 5-3 13-18 .419 11
3-May-07 Beloit College W 4-2 10-14 .417 11
3-May-07 Beloit College W 5-1 10-14 .417 11
2-Apr-07 at Clarke College W 9-3 10-16 .385 11
24-Apr-07 at North Park Univ. W 6-5 13-21 .382 11
*Apr 10, 2007 at Maranatha Baptist W 11-2 2-20 .091 9
*Apr 10, 2007 at Maranatha Baptist W 18-0 2-20 .091 9
2-May-07 Illinois Wesleyan 1-2 L 28-9 .757 6
17-Apr-07 Augustana Coll. Ill. W 9-4 27-11 .711 14
*Mar 27, 2007 Edgewood College 2-6 L 22-12 .647 4
*Mar 27, 2007 Edgewood College W 8-4 22-12 .647 12
*Apr 18, 2007 Benedictine Univ. 3-6 L 14-17 .452 2
*Apr 18, 2007 Benedictine Univ. W 3-0 14-17 .452 10
*Mar 25, 2007 Dominican University W 8-0 16-21 .432 10
*Mar 25, 2007 Dominican University W 12-2 16-21 .432 10
19-Mar-07 Beloit College 5-7 L 10-14 .417 2
20-Mar-07 Beloit College W 7-0 10-14 .417 10
1-May-07 UW-Platteville W 12-9 12-20-2 .382 10
*Apr 29, 2007 Lakeland College W 9-8 9-16 .360 10
*Apr 29, 2007 Lakeland College W 13-12 9-16 .360 10
*Apr 23, 2007 Wisconsin Lutheran W 8-7 3-19 .136 8
*Apr 23, 2007 Wisconsin Lutheran W 10-0 3-19 .136 8
Total: 337, divided by 36 games, 9.36
May 13th, 2007 at 10:45 am
Im not guessing im telling you guys all the marietta players are at home for summer. So there coach had to know something so i don’t think they are in.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:03 am
admin, i need some help…….do you have any clue who is hosting the mideast, midwest and the central regionals……trying to make my travel plans for this upcoming week………thank you
May 13th, 2007 at 11:35 am
Admin, please throw in your thoughts on the West regional site also if you have one. Thanks in advance.
May 13th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
I show Rockford with 2 less QOW points, I believe they hosted Beloit all 4 games, that would drop thier QOWI down a few hundreths of a point. Like I posted on the message board what hurt them as they swept through the tourney was that the 2 losses by Edgewood and Marian dropped them from +.667 and +.500 to +.500 and +.333 respectfully. This ended up costing them 10 points or about .3 in thier overall QOWI. (From around 9.6 to around 9.3). Sort of funny how that works out., especially with Marian playing 4 throwaway games earlier in the week against Wisconsin teams and they couldn’t put forth their best pitching etc. as the tourney was Friday
In the bigger picture what hurts them is the conference overall, there were 11 active teams, 1 over .667 (Rockford) which obviously does them no good, only 2 over .500, 6 under .500 and 2 under .333.
As to the question of whether they deserve to make it, from what I’ve seen with all of the upsets, it would seem that there only hope would be a “B” bid, there are 6 of those (thanks to this site I believe) and 5 seem locked up from what all is said. That would leave just one spot, In my analysis Rockford would definetly beat out York (Pa) who has been mentioned, as well as Thomas More, and Washington Jefferson. The team which seems to be thier roadblock is Ithaca, you can make an arguement either way - Ithaca has them on QOWI that is for sure, but the other critiera is open for debate.
May 13th, 2007 at 12:31 pm
It’s possible — two of the games were marked differently on Beloit’s schedule but I see now that Riverhawks Stadium is Rockford’s home. That affects the NAthC tournament games as well.
May 13th, 2007 at 12:32 pm
Recalculation with the two Beloit games and the three NAthC games listed as home lowers the QOWI of Rockford to 9.222.
May 13th, 2007 at 12:34 pm
Mideast is being hosted at Mills Field, in Strongsville, Ohio.
We have no official or even unofficial word on the Midwest.
It’s suggested the West may be at McMurry University in Abilene, Texas. However, the only three regionals we have any published verification of are listed on the front page, under the survey.
May 13th, 2007 at 2:27 pm
Good guess on the Midwest would be Wisconsin Rapids. I have no inside info on that, but it seems to make sense.
My guess on the Central would be Bloomington, IL, but that’s just a guess. With Luther and Wartburg possibly two of the top 3 seeds, they might have it in Iowa somewhere if anyone submitted for there.
May 13th, 2007 at 2:29 pm
D3baseball: What’s your angle? What gives you the inside info on this? I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’m just saying that if what you say is true, I’m pretty sure it would be the first time Marietta has done that since they became nationally competitive in the early 70s.
May 13th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
any predictions now that the final games have been played?
May 13th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
Couple notes — I changed d3baseball’s name to d3baseball fan so that there would be no confusion. Said poster doesn’t work for the site.
I checked the IP address of the two posters that have made this claim and there’s nothing to speak in favor or against their reliability. But I’m not sure it’s a big deal, either — so what if they did? Don’t see where it matters in the grand scheme.
May 13th, 2007 at 4:33 pm
Rockford was home to all the Beloit games, there were some cancellations in effect which may have confused matters, but I do believe that you had the Conf. Tourney correct - at least as far as Rockford stats list those games as being neutral - from what I understand the host was actually Edgewood College who hosted the tourney at the minor league park in Rockford.
May 13th, 2007 at 4:53 pm
i hear the brackets wont be up until 8am monday morning why do they tell you after midnight around 1-3am
May 13th, 2007 at 5:47 pm
Any thoughts on what the brackets may look like, now that everything is basically wrapped up??
May 13th, 2007 at 9:12 pm
I think it would be unfair to see 3 teams from the CCIW go to the central regionals. Just for an FYI, Edgewood College was the host for the NAC Tournament. Rockford was treated no different than the other 3 teams. In fact, they were the ” visitors” for their second round game against Concordia on Friday. We’re keeping our “fingers crossed” !
May 13th, 2007 at 9:34 pm
I expect it doesn’t matter who the so-called host is if you play in your own stadium.
May 13th, 2007 at 9:38 pm
How many teams will make each regional tournament?
May 13th, 2007 at 9:40 pm
admin–when do you think the brackets will be posted on here for the tournament? I know the official announcement isn’t supposed to be until a 2 am deadline (even though it seems like it is usually before this) but will they be posted here at that time? Thanks!!
May 13th, 2007 at 9:45 pm
I’m with Dave, I think it’s time some teams that are not in conferences with automatic bids get a little more consideration. Edgewood was in the rankings up until last week and now it’s Carthage instead of Rockford? I don’t quite get it, they have a better record and beat Edgewood, Concordia,IL and Augustana and like Dave said, they gave Illinois Wesleyan all they could handle in 12 innnings. Seems like some “good ole boys” calculations going on based on the past instead of looking more at common opponenets and records. If Rockford gets in I’ll put up a $100 betting we can beat any other team in the first round regionals.
May 13th, 2007 at 9:47 pm
How is Rensselaer even ranked? I have seen them play and they are terrible
May 13th, 2007 at 9:51 pm
baseballcrazy: 2 a.m. is what we were told and the NCAA just confirmed that is their target.
13: Receive release, copy, paste. That’s our plan. We’ll be here. Jim Dixon is a few hours behind Eastern Time so we are covered all night.
May 13th, 2007 at 9:52 pm
RC17: The numbers on Rockford speak for themselves. That’s a fairly low QOWI, we believe.
May 13th, 2007 at 9:53 pm
So exactly how do these at large bids work? I’m concerned about the New York region. How many teams will make that and who will it be? Cortland, Ithaca and Skidmore College won their tournaments
May 13th, 2007 at 9:56 pm
I would expect the New York regional to include a New England and or Mid Atlantic team to fill it out
May 13th, 2007 at 9:57 pm
I say it should be Cortland, Ithaca, Skidmore, Brockport and St. Lawrence, Oneonta or St John Fisher perhaps?
May 13th, 2007 at 10:03 pm
and Manhattanville, who won their league tourny
May 13th, 2007 at 10:04 pm
The tourney for the NAthC was at a minor league park, not the College itself, but I know Rockford plays at least some of thier games there as well, and as stated Edgewood was the host and Rockford stats count them as neutral sites - so who really knows.
The problem Rockford has is that swept through the tourney and thier QOWI didn’t go up at all, they got 13 (Or 12 if Rockford is classified as Home) twice for beating Concordia, and 13 (or 12) for beating Marian, but then lost 10 points (2 from each of three games against Marian and 2 from each Edgwood game) as those schools with thier tourney losses dropped below the QOW cutoffs. So you end up with best case of 39 points for 3 games, less the 10 lost is 29 for the 3 games or just below 10 per game which had a negligible impact on thier QOWI, which I show at 9.30555 with a 2-2 record against region ranked teams, whether or not that is good enough will be known shortly.
As far as teams in non AQ conferences getting more consideration, they are given exclusive rights to 6 spots, the problem is that there are some national powers that soak up 1/2 of those right off the bat every year so it gets real tight
May 13th, 2007 at 10:06 pm
Well, all I can say is being punished for being in a weak conference, and losing a few out in Arizona early isn’t all that should be looked at, they won 12 out of their last 13, losing only to Illinois Wesleyan by 1. I think that should be considered.
May 13th, 2007 at 10:07 pm
The NY regional will most likely look like this
1.Cortland
2.Ithaca
3.St John Fisher
4.Manhattanville
5.NE region team
6.Skidmore
May 13th, 2007 at 10:08 pm
why not ramapo in there
May 13th, 2007 at 10:11 pm
Oh ok so its 6 teams? I was wondering about Rensselaer. I have seen them play about, oh 7 or 8 times this season and they aren’t impressive at all. They got hammered this weekend during their leagur tournament
May 13th, 2007 at 10:14 pm
They aren’t being punished for the Arizona losses, there record out there in Region is 1-1 (Only Pomona Pitzer (a ranked and NCAA qualifer) split counting) as they are in same Admin. Region of the NCAA, the other games are out of region and do not affect thier QOWI or thier region record. Rockford is 28-8 in region
May 13th, 2007 at 10:22 pm
Thanks golengear, can you give me an idea of what the other D-3 schools in region records are or where I can look at that info?
May 13th, 2007 at 10:27 pm
Not easy to find, you need to go to thier websites and figure it out by each case, you can see the in region records for the ranked teams if you follow one of the links on the front pate of d3baseball or go to nccaa.org
May 13th, 2007 at 10:30 pm
There are five 7team regionals and three 6team regionals. Nothing is set…i was just saying NY probably is one of the 6 team
The NY region is considered one of the weaker regions……RPI was ranked 5th in the rankings on thursday before going 1-2 in the liberty league tourney. They pretty much have no chance at getting a bid with a low QOWI and having a 0-0 record against NY region ranked teams isnt going to get you a bid.
May 13th, 2007 at 10:32 pm
RC17 if Rockford wasn’t ranked in the last rankings this past thursday which i dont believe they were its probably going to be hard for them to get a bid
May 13th, 2007 at 10:35 pm
frozenopre can you explain QOWI
May 13th, 2007 at 10:35 pm
RPI was ranked 5th in the region, however their record was wrong at the time. Their record shows 23-8 when it was actually 28-8. Another consideration is that they did beat St John Fisher.
May 13th, 2007 at 10:42 pm
I am guessing it is quality opponent win index and I wouldnt be a bit surprised if RPI’s was horrible. They schedule, play and beat poor teams and get manhandled by good teams
May 13th, 2007 at 10:43 pm
QOWI stands for quality of wins index
its basically a point system to determine the quality of ones wins/loses
theres a link under the national topics in Questions about NCAA tourney if you want to know exactly how points are rewarded
May 13th, 2007 at 10:46 pm
Alright, thanks man. Yea, I am pretty sure that Rensselaer’s QOWI is pretty dang low. They play and beat the little sister’s of the poor!
May 13th, 2007 at 10:46 pm
will three NJAC teams make the tourny? I am thinking that NJ and Kean are in as 1 and 2 in the Mid-Atlantic. Then there is Montclair, Ramapo, and Rowan…can one of those teams jump into the south (like rowan did last year) or into the weaker NY region? Montclair just won three in a row against Salisbury and 2 against ithaca. Ramapo has a good overall record, but against weaker play, and a good conference record but finished fourth in the long haul of the season. Rowan, well rowan had an okay conference run in the tourny, and picked it up a lot late in the season, which seems to be important for a bid. What do you guys think about the NJAC, who had four teams go to regionals last year?
May 13th, 2007 at 10:48 pm
Again this is the problem. It is based on the past not the present. How can 3 teams from the CCIW be ranked & be considered for a regional bid if one team finishes first, second & third in a conference tournament. Beating each other should cancel one or two out of consideration. Every year those teams in that conference are ranked. It’s because of what theydid the previous year. Was Aurora ranked at the beginning of this season ?They couldnt even get out of the second division of the NAC ! All Conferences no matter how strong they are should have an automatic bid for the tournament winners & let the other teams “sweat it out” like we are. Expand the tournament, make it single elimination so that this can happen. It would make it simpler for the pairings to come out.
May 13th, 2007 at 10:49 pm
Who won the NJAC tourney? Montclair is pretty good
May 13th, 2007 at 10:50 pm
tcnj
May 13th, 2007 at 10:57 pm
What about Ithaca? What are the chances they are safe after splitting with Rochester and then losing twice to Montclair this weekend? They have an overall record of 24-13.
May 13th, 2007 at 10:59 pm
Single elimination for baseball is a daffy idea. And the tournament was just expanded, so thank your lucky stars that you even have a chance. Back when it was 42 teams we wouldn’t be talking about Rockford right now.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:00 pm
Ithaca is in. They play good teams
May 13th, 2007 at 11:01 pm
any thoughts on the midwest regional? and who might be in?
May 13th, 2007 at 11:03 pm
montclair and rowan play good schedules, most of montclair’s loses are to top 30 teams…where as ramapo plays weaker teams. they have certainly had one hell of a turn around from last year though. congrats to ramapo for that, that NJAC sure is tough, and they handled themselves. If a third NJAC team gets in, no matter which one it is, they certainly deserve it, and will make headway im sure
May 13th, 2007 at 11:03 pm
and what do you think of having multiple pool B and C bids in? I am thinking it may be 1) st thomas 2) oshkosh (Pool C) 3) St. Olaf (Pool C) 4) Stevens Point 5) St. Scholastica (Pool B/C) 6) Ripon ???
May 13th, 2007 at 11:04 pm
No doubt, Montclair is in because of their strength of schedule
May 13th, 2007 at 11:07 pm
I got RPI with a 25-10 in-region and a QOWI of 9.000000….not to mention just 1-0 (beat Fisher) against the region ranked teams. Going 1-2 in the relatively weak Liberty league doesnt help there cause. If im guessing theyre not going to be in.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:07 pm
Baseball 19: what are your accredidations in that statement, i certainly think they have a shot, im just curious if maybe your guess is a little more educated than mine? the wait is killing me, i am sure it is to every1 else as well.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:09 pm
Is a QOWI of 9.000 good, bad or mediocre? I would have thought they’d have to at least finish as the runner up in the Liberty League Tournament to get an automatic bid. They got pounded. However, they were ranked 17th I believe going into the weekend
My guess: They dont make it
May 13th, 2007 at 11:09 pm
13 id say your right on with the Midwest region
May 13th, 2007 at 11:09 pm
About Montclair? Well, they played a VERY tough schedule and had a very good record. They should be in
May 13th, 2007 at 11:10 pm
is the 18 loses too many though? where as a team like ramapo only has 13?
May 13th, 2007 at 11:12 pm
RPI is one of those bubble teams. The only reason we are talking about some teams is that the favorites did prevail in most of the conference tournaments.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:12 pm
the only two ny region teams who beat montclair are cortland and rensselaer
May 13th, 2007 at 11:14 pm
Only 1 sub .500 team (Austin) made it in. Skidmore is just above .500 but that is pretty much it. If Capital had won the OAC, one more bubble would have burst.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:15 pm
13: I can’t decide if I think Ithaca or St. Scholastica will get in. I don’t think they both do. I’m not convinced either does. But considering they were 2nd in the NY region I’m putting Ithaca in right now, though if I were doing the picking they wouldn’t be.
I have the Midwest at UST, UWO, STO, Carthage, UWSP, Ripon. So pretty close.
dthree: I see your point and probably agree with it really. But Ramapo’s been regionally ranked all year and Montclair hasn’t. I figure if Montclair were on the radar they would have been ranked regionally, even if was at the bottom.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:17 pm
Ithaca is in, trust me.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:17 pm
Spence: what is your thought for Ithaca over Scholastica? and do you feel that if they dont get a pool B that the other isnt strong enough to get a pool C?
May 13th, 2007 at 11:18 pm
Being ranked 17th doesnt mean anything in the selction process….that is in the coaches Poll. As of the last regional rankings that came out on thursday afternoon….RPI was #5 in the NY region rankings that the NCAA uses to make the selections and that was before they went 1-2 in the Libery league tourney.
From what i Know a 9.000 isn’t that good……if your comparing just teams in the NY region:
Cortland 10.9 (5-0 against region ranked teams)
Ithaca about 10.14 (6-5 against region ranked teams)
Fisher 10.11746 (6-6 against region ranked teams)
May 13th, 2007 at 11:18 pm
Getting back to Rockford over Augustana, I don’t think either will get a “C” bid, Rockfords hope would seem to be a “B” bid in my opinion
For the record, I have Augustana is 27-11 in region with a 9.36 qowi, and Rockford at 28-8 with a 9.305 qowi, with Rockford taking the head to head matchup.
As far as the 100 dollar bet on game 1 if Rockford did make the tourney, no thanks if Gomez is pitching, wouldn’t want to be a high seed and have to face him in the first round.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:21 pm
Thanks for the response, frozenrope.
I agree about RPI not making it. They seem to have a very watered down schedule and I’m not sure why they do that? Their performance in the league tournament was rather pitiful, to say the least
May 13th, 2007 at 11:21 pm
http://bombers.ithaca.edu/schedules.asp?path=baseball
That is Ithaca’s schedule and results. They played a tough schedule and did really well. They are in
May 13th, 2007 at 11:22 pm
In regards to frozen rope, those are pretty good qowi for those NY teams, the problem being and perhaps a flaw in the process if those “ranked” teams they are playing and building up thier QOWI wouldn’t even be on the radar in another region, especially with Fisher and Ithaca more so than Cortland.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:23 pm
Id say your right on GoldenBear I dont see either Rockford or Augustana getting in
May 13th, 2007 at 11:24 pm
what makes the njac stand out as a tough conference? thanks
May 13th, 2007 at 11:26 pm
Im not sure i follow what you mean GoldenBear…..are you saying that Ithaca and Fisher wouldnt even be ranked if they played in another region?
May 13th, 2007 at 11:26 pm
the njac consists of tcnj, kean,msu,rowan,ramapo and other tough opponents that always do very well against non njac competitors
May 13th, 2007 at 11:26 pm
Check out the new post from the Bracktologist!!!
May 13th, 2007 at 11:27 pm
NJAC is probably the strongest league in the country. If 3 teams came out of that conference they’d probably do very well in any region they were in.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:28 pm
last year the NJAC sent 4 teams to regionals. 3 to the mid-atlantic, and 1 to the south. Well needless the say, the Mid-atlantic just became the NJAC tourny all over again. The final three teams were TCNJ Montclair and Kean. then in the south, Rowan, a team that finished up 5th in the conference, went to the finals in the south regional, and forced a final game, and just lost. If 3 or 4 teams fromo the NJAC went to regionals, we could certainly see an NJAC world series, with 2 teams making the series. I am not insulting other conferences by no means, i honestly dont know much, just that the west and mid-atlantic regions are very tough. I am a New Jersey native and just know the talent of the njac.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:28 pm
I see what your saying now GoldenBear….that will definately play into a higher QOWI which may flaw it a bit
The NJAC is the best conference in the country and that is just a fact
May 13th, 2007 at 11:29 pm
D3 baseball really isn’t that good. There seems to be either “good” teams or “bad” teams with no in between
May 13th, 2007 at 11:31 pm
The good D3 teams are as good if not better than a majority of D2 teams and even some low D1 teams, but lacking the depth in some areas. And there are some bad D3 teams, no doubt, but every league and division has bad teams.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:33 pm
New York
(1) Cortland State
(2) Ithaca
(3) St. John Fisher
(4) Trinity
(5) Skidmore
(6) Manhattanville
(7) Westfield State
Says the last post by the “Bracketologist”
May 13th, 2007 at 11:35 pm
I cant see Trinity getting a bid…..when they dont even make their league tourney
May 13th, 2007 at 11:35 pm
Where is Trinity from? Whats their record
May 13th, 2007 at 11:36 pm
13: I am not sure either one of them gets a Pool B. Chapman, York, Salisbury and Emory are locks. I could see Washington and Washington & Jefferson getting the other two. That would put Ithaca and ST. Scho into Pool C.
I’d take the bet on Rockford in round 1. I remember Jeff Nokovich last year. I doubt I get a chance to collect though.
What makes teh NJAC so good? National and regional championships. A boatload of them.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:36 pm
I went to 12 or so njac games this year for the first time , to watch my kid pitch sometimes. I had no idea last fall . thanks for the heads up.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:40 pm
Trinity is from Connecticut and they were 28-6…..but didnt even make their conference tourney
May 13th, 2007 at 11:40 pm
lol how did they not make their conference tourney?
May 13th, 2007 at 11:41 pm
The two of them are in a 4 team conference, that should say enough, what I was saying if you slid them over to compete with the other regions they wouldn’t be able to have the same winning percentage or QOWI that they have in thier protected region. Just quickly glancing at Ithaca with the above link, everytime they go out of conference they have struggled against anyone decent, then they pull the nifty maneuver of managing to play Montclair and drop two to them this weekend but they are 202 miles away so they don’t count in the region record.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:51 pm
I’ll take Fabian Gomez against any NJAC School Right Now !
May 13th, 2007 at 11:51 pm
GoldenBear that game against Montlclair has been schedule all year long….ithaca usually plays 2 games with them every year on this weekend. I agree Ithaca has struggled to everyone decent this year.
May 13th, 2007 at 11:55 pm
I’d still give a a bid to Ithaca. At least they scheduled and played good teams. A team like RPI rarely played a good team, so why let them into the regionals where they will have to play, ugh, good teams?
May 14th, 2007 at 12:13 am
who has fabian gomez beat? and just cause one pitcher is good, does not mean that their TEAM should go. But they have a decent club and just might. Pitchin in the NJAC is tough, two top pitchers, Augustine and Zeffiro from Kean are two of the best out there, and the NJAC at times can still get to them. NJAC lineups boast some pretty good hitters, with a lot of all-americans in the mix.
May 14th, 2007 at 12:18 am
The midwest has some legitimate pitchers as well, Zimmerman from Stevens Point should be a top 20 rounder. Where do most of the top NJAC players play in the summer?
May 14th, 2007 at 12:22 am
20 rounder? for what??? Please dont say the MLB draft
::yawn::
May 14th, 2007 at 12:27 am
yeah, thats what I was talking about. why? you dont think so?
May 14th, 2007 at 12:29 am
Good Pitching stops good hitting. Ask Ill. Weslelyn. They faced him for 6 innings & couldn’t hit him.
May 14th, 2007 at 12:30 am
Who are you talking about Dave?
May 14th, 2007 at 12:31 am
College baseball should get rid of the metal bats
May 14th, 2007 at 12:32 am
i agree….that is why summer leagues are so much fun.
May 14th, 2007 at 12:34 am
The real hitters can hit with wood. Plus it eliminates those painful 12-10 four hour games
May 14th, 2007 at 12:38 am
baseball19—where do the best college players from the NJAC play summer ball?
May 14th, 2007 at 1:06 am
The top players will play in the NECBL or the ACBL…occassionaly, if lucky a guy might get picked up for the cape here n there. Not very usual at d3 play. Then the others play in the NYCBL or the ACCBL. i think this is pretty accurate, but i guess i could always be wrong.
May 14th, 2007 at 1:10 am
I dont know where the best college players from the NJAC play summer ball. Probably on a baseball field.
May 14th, 2007 at 6:10 pm
13, I mean Fabian Gomez. The Entire Central Region is breathing easier.