D-III bracketology
May
2007
Lets hear your comments on who is going to be in and who is out.
rkwachholz39 starts us off with this post:
Okay everyone, I hope you are ready for some good water cooler talk. I am going to play D3 Bracketologist for the upcoming NCAA Tournament. All records and information is updated as of April 30, 2007 regarding records and conference standings. Also, any teams that have not completed 30 games to this point have been left off any potential Independent or At-Large Qualifiers. First, I will rundown the list of qualifiers. Then, I will give you my thoughts on placement and seeding. Here we go!
Automatic Qualifiers-I hope I have the right conferences (Pool A)
CCIW = Illinois Wesleyan (25-9)
IIAC = Wartburg (24-8)
SLIAC = Webster (25-10)
Centennial = Johns Hopkins (29-7)
MA Commonwealth = Lebanon Valley (20-16)
MA Freedom = King’s (26-9)
NJAC = Kean (30-6)
PennAC = Arcadia (24-9)
Heartland = Mt. St. Joseph (28-7)
MIAC = Hope (25-10)
North Coast = Wooster (35-3)
Ohio = Otterbein (24-7)
President’s = Washington & Jefferson (26-7)^
Midwest = St. Norbert’s (21-7)^
Minnesota = St. Olaf (25-4)
Wisconsin = UW-Oshkosh (26-8)
*NEWMAC = Wheaton (27-10)
*GNAC = Western New England (25-8)
Commonwealth Coast = Curry (23-7)
Little East = Eastern Connecticut (26-8)
NESCAC = Tufts (22-9)
MaSCAC = Westfield State (16-13)
City UNYAC = Mitchell College (15-7)^
State UNYAC = SUNY-Cortland (32-4)
Liberty = Rensselaer (23-8)
Skyline = Manhattanville (20-15)
Allegheny Mountain = La Roche (23-15)
*Old Dominion = Bridgewater (17-20)
* SCAC = Austin College (22-23)
*USA South = Ferrum (23-16)
American Southwest = TX Lutheran (32-8-1)
*Northwest = Pacific Lutheran (32-7)
*SCalIAC = Pomona Pitzer (26-10)
Independent Qualifiers (Pool B)
Univ of Washington (28-9)
St. Scholastica (29-5)
Salisbury (30-7)
Emory (35-7)
Chapman (32-5)
At-Large Qualifiers (Pool C)
Luther (24-7)
Edgewood (23-9)
College of New Jersey (28-8)
Gwynedd-Mercy (24-9)
Thomas More (23-7)
Univ of St. Thomas (24-9)
Salve Regina (23-9)
Keene State College (25-9)
Trinity (26-6)
York (28-9)
Rhodes College (36-10)
Millsaps (35-11)
Averett (31-12)
TX-Dallas (31-9)
George Fox (29-6)
*Conference Season Completed, team has secured automatic qualifier
^Tie in conference, best overall record taken
Groupings and Rankings for Tournament
Central
(1) Wartburg
(2) IL Wesleyan
(3) Rhodes
(4) Millsaps
(5) Luther
(6) U of Washington
(7) Webster
Mid-Atlantic
(1) Kean
(2) Johns Hopkins
(3) College of NJ
(4) Kings
(5) Arcadia
(6) Gwynedd-Mercy
(7) Lebanon Valley
Mideast
(1) Wooster
(2) Mt. St. Joseph
(3) Otterbein
(4) Washington & Jefferson
(5) Thomas More
(6) Hope
Midwest
(1) St. Olaf
(2) UW-Oshkosh
(3) St. Thomas
(4) St. Scholastica
(5) Edgewood
(6) St. Norbert
New England
(1) Eastern Connecticut
(2) Western New England
(3) Curry
(4) Trinity
(5) Wheaton
(6) Tufts
(7) Westfield State
New York
(1) Cortland State
(2) Rensselaer
(3) Keene State
(4) Salve Regina
(5) LaRoche College
(6) Manhattanville
(7) Mitchell College
South
(1) Emory
(2) Salisbury
(3) York
(4) Averett
(5) Ferrum
(6) Bridgewater
West
(1) Chapman
(2) TX Lutheran
(3) George Fox
(4) Pacific Lutheran
(5) TX Dallas
(6) Pomona Pitzer
(7) Austin College
Last Four In
Salve Regina
Edgewood College
Averett
Gwynedd Mercy
Last Five Out
SUNY Oneonta
Methodist
Ramapo
Augustana
Penn State Behrend
NOTES
I am an assistant coach in the Midwest, so much of the selections were based on winning percentages than looking at each schedule. I know the ratings index will factor in a lot. Only teams with winning percentages above .700 were considered for Independent and At-Large Qualifiers. I left out Keystone because I am not sure if they are still provisional. Williams College, St. Joseph’s (ME) could move in once they have played enough games. Austin College winning the SCAC created the opportunity for 3 SCAC teams to get in. Loses by Illinois Wesleyan, Johns Hopkins, Kean, Mt. St. Joseph, Wooster, St. Olaf, UW-Oshkosh, and SUNY Cortland would bump some of the last four in from the tournament. I will be back next Tuesday with the updated projection. Have fun with this!
May 2nd, 2007 at 5:08 pm
i feel Ramapo college has a good shot considering the tough conference they are in, and a decent Qowi
May 2nd, 2007 at 5:14 pm
Baseballcrazy, can you calculate the QOWI for Ramapo and post it here for us? Best shot! Don’t worry, proofreading and double checks are appreciated!
Please look at my format for Rhodes (9.722 = QOWI) on the SCAC board from last night.
May 2nd, 2007 at 6:07 pm
as of today i have ramapo with a qowi of 9.727
May 2nd, 2007 at 6:42 pm
Brockport State and Ithaca are two possible at-large selections for the New York region bracket. Brockport as a Pool C from the State University of New York Athletic Conference and Ithaca as a Pool B from the Empire 8.
I can’t see only three New York teams in the New York regional.
May 2nd, 2007 at 6:55 pm
I am curious about Salve Regina getting a pool C bid. Depending on who wins conference tournaments in the next few weeks, i can think of a number of New England teams more deserving than Salve.
Salve plays in the CCC (a weaker conference) are 13-5 in conference and have only 4 out of conference in region games 2 losses to Keene, a win over Brandies and a win over Johnson and Wales.
May 2nd, 2007 at 7:06 pm
Isn’t the NEAC a Pool A?
May 2nd, 2007 at 7:21 pm
Yes I checked handbook the NEAC is Pool A - So you can add Keystone as Pool if they win the NEAC Tournament
May 2nd, 2007 at 7:40 pm
I believe Keystone in provisional and is not eligible for the playoffs
May 2nd, 2007 at 8:29 pm
what do you think about ramapo’s chances ralph ?
May 2nd, 2007 at 8:43 pm
You have to consider Babson for an at-large qualifier…look at the teams they have beaten.
May 2nd, 2007 at 8:49 pm
SALVE REGINA, are you guys kidding me??? Also, Tufts is not an auto bid yet, they haven’t even had the NESCAC tourney yet!
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:39 pm
B2islegit, we discussed Babson on the other blog and determined that Babson had too many ugly losses (loss to teams that are below .500 in-region).
Their in-region record, one of the critieria, is only 21-12 (.636) with four games remaining. If they sweep those, they only rise to 25-12 (.677). I did not take the time to run the QOWI because I saw 12 in-region losses.
Who they defeated is not the pertinent factor here. The losses to Coast Guard, to Clark, to MIT twice, and a “0″ QOIW point loss to Plymouth State are what is killing their QOWI! Babson has too many ugly losses to get a Pool C bid!
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:45 pm
ralph what about ramapo’s chances with a 9.727 qowi , do they have a shot at a pool c bid?
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:46 pm
ramapo is 25-8 in region
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:46 pm
NEAC is Pool A, Keystone is very strong but Provisional this season. Bid will either go to Villa Julie College or the other team eligible in the playoffs Cazenovia University, of course my money is on Villa Julie!
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:47 pm
baseballcrazy, I think that Ramapo is a strong contender for a Pool C. I think that Tom Wilson from Rowan has the best handle on that confernece. He understands the QOWI and the Selection Criteria as well as anyone in D3! i am looking to him for guidance on the very competitive NJAC.
I think that their competition is from the NJAC!
NEAC is a Pool A conference, but we have not heard how they will determine the Pool A bid if Keystone wins.
Also, the President’s AC is not a Pool A conference this year, probably next year.
Move the Pres AC (W&J) into Pool B/C.
As an NJAC aside…
Montclair State came to McMurry in March about 3-4 years ago for our Abilene Classic and the talent that they had was incredible.
A knowledgeable observer said they had 4-5 players of physical talent on that team of the type that we saw once every 4-5 years!
I greatly respect that league.
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:49 pm
thanx for your input ralph
May 2nd, 2007 at 10:06 pm
Baseballcrazy, Ramapo’s 25-8 record has an in-region percentage of .758.
That is why Babson is not even close.
I look forward to tomorrow’s rankings.
Rhodes is 26-10 .722) and a QOWI of 9.722, I think that they are on the bubble, if not in deep trouble!
May 2nd, 2007 at 10:23 pm
Well, if a team other than Keystone wins the NEAC tournament, there you go. That team would get the auto bid.
If not, then, my guess would be the runner-up would go to the NCAA playoffs. Right now, it looks like that could be Villa Julie who’s been the other strongest team in the league.
Though, this situation could get ugly if a team with a poor record gets hot in the conference tournament.
May 3rd, 2007 at 12:39 am
Thanks for the updates on the AQs, IQs, and At-Large. I will update this for next week.
May 3rd, 2007 at 1:01 am
Ralph, thanks for your imput, but I have calculated Babson’s QOWI by hand, and I think to the surprise of many, even with the ugly losses, and the in region win percentage of .636 compared to that of Trinity’s .793, Babson’s QOWI is 8.50 compared to Trinity’s 6.07!!! Now, please tell me HOW Trinity’s record can be considered impressive, when they clearly have played CUPcakes.
Babson does have those ugly losses, but they MORE than made up for them with their quality wins and tough road losses that boosted their points. I’m not saying this will put them in the rankings tomorrow, but remember, the comittee looks at more than just the numbers. For example, Trinity did not even qualify for their conferance tournament, and Babson advanced to the finals of their tourney, with both losses coming to Wheaton, who as everyone knows is #7 in the country, and #1 in New England. N
ot to mention, Babson split with Trinity, and has a better record vs regionally ranked opponents, which is another criteria looked at by the commitee. I think you would agree, that Babson’s next 3 games vs Southern Maine at home, and 2 vs Tufts on the road determine their fate. Let me know your thoughts. Thanks Ralph.
May 3rd, 2007 at 9:15 am
B2, thanks for the intelligent discussion and for calculating both QOWI on Babson.
From my rough glance at Babson’s record, 8.50 seems to be the ballpark for where I would guess it to be.
Trinity’s seems a bit low. In 30 New England Region games, the impact of a loss on the QOWI is 8/30 = 0.2666. Six losses knocks Trinity QOWI by 1.6 points. Even winning 24 home games against teams with won-loss percentages of .300 gives one a starting QOWI of 8.0. Winning 24 home games against teams with won-loss percentages of .450 gives one a starting QOWI 10.0. Trinity’s splitting the series with Babson on a neutral field was worth (13 + 5 =) 18 QOWI points. Losing 2 out of 3 versus Tufts at home was worth (6 + 6 + 14 =) 26 QOWI points or and average of 8.666 points. The home ECSU loss was worth 6 points to Trinity.
Even more so than in basketball, playing good teams helps to boost the team’s QOWI.
Let me get home to my computer tonight. Hopefully after the release of this week’s regional rankings, we will get a better idea of the shifts in the New England Regional Rankings.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:29 am
I have been trying to follow the NJAC as much as possible. Was able to listen some games over the radio. May try to Newark to catch a couple of the Tourny games. By the way the 6 teams that made the NJAC tourny were 78-32 out-of-conference (.709)
My take is that TCNJ and Kean are a toss up for the Pool A. Loser gets Pool C. TCNJ and Kean are pretty even in pitching 3.45 vs. 3.46. TCNJ has a slight edge in BA .321 vs. .313. I’ll take Ramapo as the tourny darkhorse. The Roadrunners have the league high BA .359 and runs scored 355. Which is 54 more runs than TCNJ and 70 more than Kean. They’ll have to hit their way to winning the tournament, Ramapo’s team ERA is 5.60.
TCNJ and Kean should be locks for the NCAA’s. If a team other than TCNJ or Kean wins the NJAC tourny, you’ll see three NJAC teams 1 Pool A and 2 Pool C’s. If TCNJ or Kean win, I don’t think they’ll be more than 1 Pool C. A second Pool C would be a real long shot given the other bubble teams in the country.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:40 am
talking about a long shot ramapos QOWI is higher than most, wondering how Rowan got in last year with a 18-10 regional mark
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:06 am
hi, first timer..great web site…any thoughts on Centennial runner-up getting at large?? is there a site where i can learn about the pool b &c criteria?
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:16 am
You still may see Ramapo, especially if they perform well but don’t win the Tournament. I’m just thinking that the NCAA isn’t going to hand out three bids every year to the NJAC, even though they probably should. Rowan probably got there last year a bit on previous reputation (great pitching 2001-05). I think they should have picked Kean in 2006 instead.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:29 am
what time do the regional ncaa rankings usually come out?
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:42 am
I’ve added the criteria to our FAQ:
http://www.d3baseball.com/faq/category/NCAA+Tournament
Crazy, regional rankings tend to be late afternoon.
sgoodtrade — we’ll be broadcasting the Centennial championship game(s) on Sunday. Hope you’ll tune in if you’re not in Lancaster.
May 3rd, 2007 at 12:46 pm
rkwachholz39, I am so glad you took the time to project the D3 baseball brackets…only comment I would make regarding Trinity (CT) as a Pool C possibility is that despite their great overall record and New England ranking, they didn’t even qualify for their conference tournament (NESCAC). Have their been many scenarios where a team made it to the NCAAs as an at-large even without qualifying for their conference tournament? I would think that’s pretty rare and despite a team having a 20-plus win season, it would seem to me that conference wins and strength of conference would be two important criteria in determining at-large qualifiers.
May 3rd, 2007 at 12:54 pm
Please note that due to some misinformation on AQ forms, the pool allocations for the 2007 championship will be as follows -
Pool A-33, Pool B-6, Pool C-14.
The information will be updated in the handbook online. As a reminder selections will occur late on the evening of May 13th.
May 3rd, 2007 at 1:58 pm
Credit for this should go to Ralph Turner, who scoured the handbook when it first came out and brought the apparent discrepancy to the attention of Jim and me. I raised it with the NCAA after confirming his observations.
May 3rd, 2007 at 2:52 pm
Thanks, Pat and Jim.
I really believe that Pool B is so strong that the 6th Pool B bid would have been no worse than the 11th or 12th Pool C bid.
The UAA (Wash StL and Emory) and the Capital AC (esp. York PA and Salisbury) and Wash & Jeff are strong. Chapman may be the #1 seed in the West. There are six teams, and we have not considered the NAthCon.
May 3rd, 2007 at 3:12 pm
I just noticed new rankings are out. Sorry B2 but Babson is not ranked in New England region. The surprise to me is Wheaton is only 4 in the rankings. They have a DH Saturday at home vs WNEC that could help either of them with their seedings if they can sweep and a split would probably keep WNEC ahead of them for the regional.
May 3rd, 2007 at 4:30 pm
I would agree that rhodes would definitley be a bubble team, even with their strong regional and overall record. also, i disagree with averett being placed in the tournament, seeing as the selections in the past have reflected that if you finish 4th in the conference tournament, you usually won’t get in. As far as pool B’s are concerned, the UAA and CAC are probably the strongest conferences. Emory, WashU and Salisbury appear to be locks, but looking at the regional rankings, it seems like it could be a tight pick between York (PA) and Mary Washington (VA). After some reserach, Mary Washington tied York for the conference regular season championship and beat them handily in the conference tournament. It appears that the Pool B’s spilling into Pool C will effect the outcome of the selections greatly.
May 3rd, 2007 at 9:31 pm
any new bracket predictions ahead?
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:05 pm
Wheaton just beat Eastern Connecticut tonight on the road, 2-1 (the second win vs. ECSU this year. They are at Southern Maine tomorrow … and home with WNEC for two on Saturday.
I don’t get the rankings, I won’t pretend to understand the rankings … but seeing that they have swpt ECSU and beaten Keene State , I don’t see how they can’t be #1 in the region if they win their last three … that is a BIG if though.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:54 pm
I will be creating another bracket prediction on Sunday night May 6th after some more conference tournaments finish. Look for one Sunday night or Monday morning May 7th. IF I have time, I will try and complete one a few hours before the real one comes out.
May 6th, 2007 at 10:08 pm
what do you have for us rkwachholz
May 14th, 2007 at 2:52 am
Why is it 2:48am ET and the D3 selections have not yet posted on the NCAA Sports site…do they think I have insomnia or something?
Trinity gets in even though they didn’t even qualify for their own conference tournament?